It will be necessary for your Forecaster to be out of the office quite a bit during the next few weeks. We will continue to have regular forecasts (barring unforeseen circumstances), although they may not adhere to our normal schedule of Monday - Wednesday - Friday. We will make every effort to forecast for as many days as possible. The format we have been using for much of this spring will be retained for the foreseeable future (detailed forecasts for the U.S. source and other significant events, trajectory-only otherwise). TK
FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, May 30:
***** Disease Update - 28 May ***** We have the first report of blue mold from the southern Appalachian Mountains. Blue mold has been discovered in float beds in Greene County, Tennessee. Fresh lesions are present with strong sporulation. This is a moderate-strength source. We are adding this site to the forecasts. With blue mold established in GA and FL, and now having been discovered in the southern Appalachian Mountains, we will be dropping our foreign sites out of the forecast rotation. These sites will continue to be monitored and any threatening situations will be reported.
***** Unfavorable weather on Friday will be followed by a frontal system moving through the Southeast on Saturday *** Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front. They will arrive in the mountains Friday night. Unsettled weather will spread south and east on Saturday and Saturday night. The potential for survivable transport and deposition will coincide with the favorable conditions found near the front. Airborne spores from the source in northeast TN may affect portions of the mid-Atlantic states. Moderate Risk for tobacco crops in MD and PA for Friday's transport event. Low Risk elsewhere. On Saturday.... there is HIGH RISK for the southern Appalachian Mountains, especially the areas near the source in northeast TN. Moderate Risk for southwest and southside VA and the northern half of NC, as the pathway from the mountains moves east. The trajectories from southern GA and northern FL move northeast on Saturday. Moderate Risk for the near-coastal counties of SC and southeast NC. Low Risk elsewhere. Unfavorable weather is expected over most of the southeast U.S. on Sunday. Transport events from the known sources appear to be Low Threats at this time.
TK
Areas at Strongly Moderate or HIGH Risk during the past week: southern Appalachian Mountains
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Pinar del Rio, Cuba
Santiago, Dominican Republic
Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
Corpus Christi, Texas
Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.