It will be necessary for your Forecaster to be out of the office quite a bit during the next few weeks. We will continue to have regular forecasts (barring unforeseen circumstances), although they may not adhere to our normal schedule of Monday - Wednesday - Friday. We will make every effort to forecast for as many days as possible. The format we have been using for much of this spring will be retained for the foreseeable future (detailed forecasts for the U.S. source and other significant events, trajectory-only otherwise). TK
FORECAST SUMMARY: Wednesday, May 28:
***** Disease Update - 28 May ***** We have the first report of blue mold from the southern Appalachian Mountains. Blue mold has been discovered in float beds in Greene County, Tennessee. Fresh lesions are present with strong sporulation. This is a moderate-strength source. We are adding this site to the forecasts. With blue mold established in GA and FL, and now having been discovered in the southern Appalachian Mountains, we will be dropping our foreign sites out of the forecast rotation. These sites will continue to be monitored and any threatening situations will be reported.
***** After mostly dry weather today in the Southeast, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected in some areas on Thursday as a cold front moves through the region *** The potential for disease development during the next two days will be driven by the transport events from the source in northeast TN. Spores released on Wednesday will move east under mixed conditions, with the potential for washout on Thursday. Moderate Risk for north-central NC and southside VA for today's transport event. On Thursday.... numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected in the southern Appalachian Mountains. This will confine the significant threat of disease development to areas near the source. HIGH RISK for northeast TN, extreme southwest VA, and the central and northern mountains of NC. Low Risk elsewhere. Conditions will be unfavorable for epidemic spread in the northern FL and southern GA region on Wednesday and Thursday, with Low Risk to tobacco crops.
TK
Areas at Strongly Moderate or HIGH Risk during the past week: Northern FL, southern GA, southern Appalachian Mountains
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Pinar del Rio, Cuba
Santiago, Dominican Republic
Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
Corpus Christi, Texas
Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.