It will be necessary for your Forecaster to be out of the office quite a bit during the next two weeks. We will continue to have regular forecasts (barring unforeseen circumstances), although they may not adhere to our normal schedule of Monday - Wednesday - Friday. We will make every effort to forecast for as many days as possible. The format we have been using for much of this spring will be retained for the foreseeable future (detailed forecasts for the U.S. source and other significant events, trajectory-only otherwise). TK
FORECAST SUMMARY: Sunday, May 18:
***** Disease Update - May 14 ...... Our thanks to Tom Kucharek .... who informs us that the presence of blue mold is increasing in northern Florida. Four counties now have confirmed cases: Columbia, Gilchrist, Hamilton, and Suwannee. Blue mold is not yet a major problem here. However, plant canopies are closing, and increased disease activity is expected if the weather turns favorable.
***** Significant threat to the southern Appalchian Mountains from Sunday through Tuesday *** Unsettled weather will plague the Southeast for the next several days. Cool high pressure is wedged in east of the Appalachian Mountains. A stationary front lies across southern GA. On Friday, it appeared that the stationary front would remain in southern GA as it dissipated. However, it now appears that the front will slowly drift to the north or northeast during the next two days. This is a small but significant change. Instead of weak winds near the source area in northern FL and southern GA, southerly winds will be more dominant. The trajectories will move much farther north, through GA and the western Carolinas, on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected near the source and along the forecast pathways each day. Mixed conditions for survivable transport near the source will limit the threat and risk to some extent. Moderate Risk for northern FL, southern GA, northeast GA, western SC, and western NC on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. Northeast TN, southwest VA, and extreme southwest VA will also be at Moderate Risk for Monday's event, with lesser risk for these areas on Sunday and Tuesday. No forecasts on Monday as your Forecaster must take some leave. Regular forecasts will resume on Wednesday, May 21.
***** Elsewhere, the other known sources are Low Threats early this week.
TK
Areas at Strongly Moderate or HIGH Risk during the past week: Northern FL, southern GA
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
None
Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.