It will be necessary for your Forecaster to be out of the office quite a bit during the next two weeks. We will continue to have regular forecasts (barring unforeseen circumstances), although they may not adhere to our normal schedule of Monday - Wednesday - Friday. We will make every effort to forecast for as many days as possible. The format we have been using for much of this spring will be retained for the foreseeable future (detailed forecasts for the U.S. source and other significant events, trajectory-only otherwise). TK
FORECAST SUMMARY: Wednesday, May 14:
***** Disease Update - May 14 ...... Our thanks to Tom Kucharek .... who informs us that the presence of blue mold is increasing in northern Florida. Four counties now have confirmed cases: Columbia, Gilchrist, Hamilton, and Suwannee. Blue mold is not yet a major problem here. However, plant canopies are closing, and increased disease activity is expected if the weather turns favorable.
***** Benign weather in the Southeast on Wednesday will give way to unsettled weather on Thursday ***** Mostly dry conditions are expected in the Southeast today under sunny to partly cloudy skies. Cloudiness will increase from the west later today as a frontal system approaches. The frontal system will move through the region on Thursday. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with rain likely in many areas. On Wednesday.... the trajectory from northern FL and southern GA moves slowly near the source through Wednesday evening, then tracks through GA and the Carolinas Wednesday night and Thursday. Some rain is expected along the pathway Wednesday night and Thursday, but conditions are unfavorable for survivable transport Wednesday afternoon. Low Risk near the source. Weakly Moderate Risk for southeast GA, central and eastern SC, and central and eastern NC. Low Risk byeond. On Thursday.... the trajectory moves quickly to the ENE. Conditions will be favorable for disease development. Strongly Moderate Risk near the source region in northern FL and southern GA on Thursday. Low Risk otherwise. The other known sources are Low Threats Wednesday and Thursday.
*****
TK
Areas at Strongly Moderate or HIGH Risk during the past week: None
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
None
Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.