24 March 2003 Blue Mold Forecasts

24 March Forecast Notes:

Due to a variety of issues, the transition to our new location has been rather difficult. While we get back on our feet, the forecasts for the next week or two will be abbreviated as follows: Detailed forecasts will be provided for the northern FL / southern GA source area. We will provide trajectories and summary information for the other sites. Should transport events from the sites in the Carribean, Mexico, or southern Texas prove threatening, we will include detailed forecasts for those events as well. We thank you for your patience while we adjust to our new surroundings!

 

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, March 24:

***** Blue mold has been discovered in southern Georgia *****
Paul Bertrand reports that blue mold has been found in a plant bed near the town of Lake Park in Lowndes County. A very small portion of the plant bed showed active sporulation. This small portion of the plant bed is being destroyed. No signs of disease are visible in other sections of the plant bed. A spray program is starting immediately and the remainder of the bed will be inspected closely this week. Since this new site is only 20-25 miles north of the site in northern FL, we will use the northern FL location to represent both of these outbreaks.

***** Monday and Tuesday.... Fair, dry weather will hold sway over the southeastern U.S. and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. There is Low Risk to tobacco crops in this region. The only potential problem is Tuesday's transport event from northern FL and southern GA. The trajectory moves slowly north for 24 hrs and then northeast over the Carolinas. This is due to southwest winds increasing ahead of a cold front which is expected to cross the region on Wednesday. At this time.... strong solar exposure should kill any airborne spores during transport, making this a Low Threat event. The situation will monitored closely. If conditions deteriorate, the forecast will be updated on Tuesday.

***** Elsewhere.... trajectories from the other known sources do not threaten other regions on Monday and Tuesday.

TK

Areas at Strongly Moderate or HIGH Risk during the past week: None


 

Current Sources:

 

Previous Sources:

None

 

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 Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.


***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****

This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.