FORECAST SUMMARY: Wednesday, March 19:
***** The focus for this forecast package will be on trajectory events from western Cuba. Trajectories from the other source areas have not threatened other regions during the past week. This continues for today and Thursday.
***** This past Saturday and Sunday, March 15 and 16...... trajectories moved north from western Cuba and passed near the northern FL / southern GA growing region. Trajectories are given below. Both of these transport events were characterized by unfavorable transport conditions near the source region, but generally favorable conditions for deposition and infection once reaching the southeast United States. Additional factors were present in each case that diminished the risk to tobacco crops. For Saturday's event.... a period of solar exposure during the second day of transport likely killed most of the airborne spores that may have survived during the first day of transport. In Sunday's event.... many airborne spores were likely washed out of the atmosphere due to showers that occurred Sunday evening, while the trajectory was still far from land. These factors, when combined with the unfavorable transport conditions near the source, would result in Low to Weakly Moderate Risk for northern FL and southern GA for Saturday's and Sunday's transport events.
***** For Wednesday and Thursday.... trajectories are again moving north from western Cuba. These trajectories are given below. Wednesday's moves slowly NNW through the eastern Gulf of Mexico, reaching the Florida panhandle late Thursday night. Skies are clear along the pathway this afternoon and are expected to be clear to fair on Thursday. Solar exposure should kill any airborne spores, making Wednesday's event one of Low Threat and Low Risk. Thursday's trajectory is more ominous. It moves due north Thursday and Thursday night, then curves northeastward directly over the northern FL / southern GA region on Friday. Transport conditions are expected to be highly unfavorable with copious sunshine near to and north of the source. However, Friday's arrival over the FL mainland will coincide with cloudy skies and a good chance (50%) of showers and thunderstorms. Weakly Moderate Risk for northern FL and southern GA tobacco crops for Thursday's event. Low Risk beyond.... as the anticipated rainfall should wash out nearly all surviving airborne spores.
***** The threatening transport events from this past weekend, as well as Wednesday's and Thursday's, all have similar flavor to ones that have already occurred this season. Conditions are unfavorable to highly unfavorable for survivable transport, especially during the first day. Conditions are mixed, favorable, or even highly favorable as the forecast pathways move over or near the northern FL / southern GA growing region. Individual events have not been particularly dangerous. However, the number of events over the past 5 or 6 weeks is a cause for concern. Interested parties in the northern FL and southern GA region are strongly encouraged to continue monitoring the situation with diligent scouting.... and prompt reporting should any disease be discovered.
TK
Areas at Strongly Moderate or HIGH Risk during the past week: None
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
None
Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.