FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, June 30:
***** Disease Update - 25 June ***** We have the first reports of blue mold from Kentucky. Our thanks to Dr. Bill Nesmith who informs us of blue mold discoveries in Perry and Estill Counties. The Perry County outbreak occurred in a few trays of some float beds. Many plants in the beds were suffering from considerable soft rot. Samples were examined at the University of Kentucky Plant Disease Diagnostic Lab, where evidence of blue mold was found. The initial infections likely occurred some weeks ago. Blue mold probably went through several cycles, then the soft rots developed during the very wet weather of early to mid June. Little if any inoculum is being produced at this site. However, plants from these beds were set in the field over the past month, and similar situations likely exist elsewhere in southeast KY. In Estill County.... inspection of a field being set with plants revealed a very small number of scattered lesions. The lesions appeared to be new, and sporulation was extremely light. At this time, neither of these sites is producing enough inoculum to be considered a source.
***** Tropical Storm Bill is bearing down on the eastern U.S. *** Last week, many areas had dry weather for 4 or 5 days, followed by some showery weather during the weekend. This week, more unsettled weather is on the way..... due to an abundance of warm, moist air..... a cold front moving into the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic states...and TS Bill. The best chance of rain will be from the mountains westward on Monday and Tuesday, with afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms elsewhere. The remnants of Bill are forecast to move through the TN Valley and southern mid-Atlantic areas Wednesday and Thursday. Conditions favorable for disease development are expected in many areas through much of the week.
*** In the Southeast..... trajectories will be moving to the east or northeast Monday, to the north on Tuesday. There is Strongly Moderate Risk both days for northern FL, southern GA, central and eastern SC, and southeast NC. There is Moderate Risk both days for the rest of NC east of the mountains. Low Risk otherwise in the Southeast.
*** In the southern Appalachian Mountains.... trajectories do not move very far from the source on either day. Conditions will be quite favorable for disease development on Monday and Tuesday. There is HIGH Risk for this region each day..... from southern WV and southeast KY southward through northern GA.
*** In the Ohio Valley... conditions will be favorable for disease development in this region also. Showers and thunderstorms have already moved through the source area today, and similar or worse conditions are expected on Tuesday, so the greatest risk to tobacco crops will occur near the source, with lesser but still significant risk for other nearby areas. On Monday.... there is HIGH Risk near the source. Moderate Risk for other sections of western KY, plus western TN, southwest IN, and southern IL. On Tuesday.... the trajectory moves WNW. There is HIGH Risk for north-central and NW TN and western KY. Moderate Risk for southern IL, and southeast MO. Low Risk otherwise Monday and Tuesday.
TK
Areas at Strongly Moderate or HIGH Risk during the past week: northern FL, southern GA, central and eastern SC, the southern Appalachian Mountains, north-central and northwest TN, south-central and western KY
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Pinar del Rio, Cuba
Santiago, Dominican Republic
Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
Corpus Christi, Texas
Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.