FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, June 27:
***** Disease Update - 25 June ***** We have the first reports of blue mold from Kentucky. Our thanks to Dr. Bill Nesmith who informs us of blue mold discoveries in Perry and Estill Counties. The Perry County outbreak occurred in a few trays of some float beds. Many plants in the beds were suffering from considerable soft rot. Samples were examined at the University of Kentucky Plant Disease Diagnostic Lab, where evidence of blue mold was found. The initial infections likely occurred some weeks ago. Blue mold probably went through several cycles, then the soft rots developed during the very wet weather of early to mid June. Little if any inoculum is being produced at this site. However, plants from these beds were set in the field over the past month, and similar situations likely exist elsewhere in southeast KY. In Estill County.... inspection of a field being set with plants revealed a very small number of scattered lesions. The lesions appeared to be new, and sporulation was extremely light. At this time, neither of these sites is producing enough inoculum to be considered a source.
***** Disease Update - 23 June ***** We have the first report of blue mold from Virginia. Our thanks to Harold Jerrell and Chuck Johnson .... who inform us of Mr. Jerrell's discovery of blue mold in Lee County, in the extreme southwestern part of Virginia. One lesion was found on one plant in a 5-acre field of burley tobacco near Jonesville. The tobacco is about knee-high and looked to be in excellent condition despite the recent wet weather. Given the proximity of Lee County, VA to Greene County, TN (just to the northwest).... we will not generate a separate forecast for this site. Users should consult the Greene County, TN forecast for trajectories from this area and forecast details.
***** Expect unsettled weather in the Southeast this weekend *** A cold front which moved into the Ohio Valley on Thursday will move into the mid-Atlantic and Southeast today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front, with sunny to partly cloudy skies elsewhere. The front will stall over the Southeast Saturday and Sunday. It will serve as a focus for shower and thunderstorm activity, mainly in the afternoons and evenings, with partly cloudy skies otherwise. With the front having already gone by, most of the Ohio Valley will experience dry weather for the next several days.
*** In the Southeast..... trajectories will generally be moving to the northeast or east each day. On Friday there is Weakly Moderate Risk for northern FL, southern GA, central and eastern SC, and south-central and eastern NC. Low Risk otherwise. On Saturday, with the front nearby, there is Strongly Moderate Risk for northern FL, southern GA, and central and eastern SC. Moderate Risk for south-central and eastern NC. Low Risk otherwise. Similar transport scenarios are expected on Sunday.
*** In the southern Appalachian Mountains.... showers and thunderstorms are moving through the source region during late morning and midday. There is HIGH Risk in this area today, especially near the source. A chance of showers will linger on Saturday. Impact on other regions should be low, but the southern mountains will be at Moderate Risk. Low Risk in this region on Sunday, as unfavorable weather should be dominant.
*** In the Ohio Valley... the source area in central TN is a Low Threat each day this weekend. Transport conditions should be unfavorable and no rain is expected near the source area.
TK
Areas at Strongly Moderate or HIGH Risk during the past week: northern FL, southern GA, central and eastern SC, central and eastern NC, the southern Appalachian Mountains, north-central TN, south-central KY
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Pinar del Rio, Cuba
Santiago, Dominican Republic
Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
Corpus Christi, Texas
Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.