FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday,
June 16:
***** Disease Update - 10 June ***** We have the first reports of blue mold from South Carolina. Our thanks to Bruce Fortnum, who informs us of blue mold outbreaks in Colleton and Florence Counties. The Colleton County outbreak is in a 70-acre field near the town of Walterboro, at the southern end of the SC growing regions. This is a moderate strength source. Fresh lesions are present and show moderate levels of sporulation. The Florence County outbreak is much smaller, involving about 20 plants in a 1-acre field. However, fresh lesions are exhibiting strong sporulation, and an increase in disease activity may occur due to the recently favorable weather. This source has been rated as questionable. Both of these sources are being added to the forecasts. In southern GA.... an additional report comes to us from Mark von Waldner, the extension agent in Atkinson County. He indicates there have been numerous reports and observations of blue mold in Atkinson County, involving many fields. Recent weather has been highly favorable. The degree of infection varies between fields, ranging from 10-20% at the lower end, and up to 50% in some areas. This site is served well by our current forecast trajectories in northern FL and southern GA.
***** More unsettled weather is expected in the Southeast this week *** High pressure remains anchored off the Atlantic coast. A front that now lies just to the north of the region will drop into the Carolinas today and turn stationary. The weather on Monday and Tuesday will be quite similar to what occurred over the weekend.... partly to mostly cloudy skies with scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. More numerous showers will occur near the front across the northern sections of the Southeast. Monday's trajectories move to the north, while Tuesday's trajectories move to the northeast from most of the known sources. The greatest chances of disease development will be near the source areas. Overall..... for the transport events on Monday and Tuesday..... there is HIGH Risk for the southern Appalachian Mountains. Strongly Moderate Risk is expected for northern FL, southern GA, and central and eastern SC. There is Moderate Risk for tobacco crops for the remainder of NC, from the foothills to the coast, as well as southside VA, western VA, eastern KY, and western WV. Low Risk otherwise. Showery weather is expected to continue through at least Thursday.
TK
Areas at Strongly Moderate or HIGH Risk during the past week: northern FL, southern GA, central and eastern SC, central and eastern NC, and the southern Appalachian Mountains
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Pinar del Rio, Cuba
Santiago, Dominican Republic
Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
Corpus Christi, Texas
Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.