FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday,
June 13:
***** Disease Update - 10 June ***** We have the first reports of blue mold from South Carolina. Our thanks to Bruce Fortnum, who informs us of blue mold outbreaks in Colleton and Florence Counties. The Colleton County outbreak is in a 70-acre field near the town of Walterboro, at the southern end of the SC growing regions. This is a moderate strength source. Fresh lesions are present and show moderate levels of sporulation. The Florence County outbreak is much smaller, involving about 20 plants in a 1-acre field. However, fresh lesions are exhibiting strong sporulation, and an increase in disease activity may occur due to the recently favorable weather. This source has been rated as questionable. Both of these sources are being added to the forecasts. In southern GA.... an additional report comes to us from Mark von Waldner, the extension agent in Atkinson County. He indicates there have been numerous reports and observations of blue mold in Atkinson County, involving many fields. Recent weather has been highly favorable. The degree of infection varies between fields, ranging from 10-20% at the lower end, and up to 50% in some areas. This site is served well by our current forecast trajectories in northern FL and southern GA.
***** Unsettled weather is expected in the southeast U.S. through the weekend *** High pressure centered off the coast will pump warm, moist air into the region for the foreseeable future. Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies with scattered to numerous afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day. Forecasts are abbreviated today..... mostly because the individual forecasts do not add any value to the total package. Trajectories from the sources in FL, GA, and SC will be moving northeast each day over the same areas. The mountain trajectories on Saturday and Sunday will likely not move very much from the source region. Conditions will be favorable for disease development and epidemic spread. Tobacco crops in the following areas will be at Strongly Moderate to HIGH Risk each day from Friday through Sunday: northern FL, southern GA, central and eastern SC, central and eastern NC, and the southern Appalachian Mountains. In addiditon, southeast and southside VA, western VA, and southern MD will be at Moderate Risk on Friday and Saturday. Other areas will be at Low Risk from Friday through Sunday.
TK
Areas at Strongly Moderate or HIGH Risk during the past week: northern FL, southern GA, central and eastern SC, central and eastern NC, and the southern Appalachian Mountains
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Pinar del Rio, Cuba
Santiago, Dominican Republic
Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
Corpus Christi, Texas
Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.