Forecast Update:
your forecaster was on leave on Monday, June 9. Forecasts will be produced this week on Tuesday, June
10.... Thursday, June 12... and Friday, June 13.
FORECAST SUMMARY: Tuesday,
June 10:
***** Disease Update - 10 June ***** We have the first reports of blue mold from South Carolina. Our thanks to Bruce Fortnum, who informs us of blue mold outbreaks in Colleton and Florence Counties. The Colleton County outbreak is in a 70-acre field near the town of Walterboro, at the southern end of the SC growing regions. This is a moderate strength source. Fresh lesions are present and show moderate levels of sporulation. The Florence County outbreak is much smaller, involving about 20 plants in a 1-acre field. However, fresh lesions are exhibiting strong sporulation, and an increase in disease activity may occur due to the recently favorable weather. This source has been rated as questionable. Both of these sources are being added to the forecasts. In southern GA.... an additional report comes to us from Mark von Waldner, the extension agent in Atkinson County. He indicates there have been numerous reports and observations of blue mold in Atkinson County, involving many fields. Recent weather has been highly favorable. The degree of infection varies between fields, ranging from 10-20% at the lower end, and up to 50% in some areas. This site is served well by our current forecast trajectories in northern FL and southern GA.
***** Disease Update - 6 June ***** Blue mold continues to spread in southern GA. Disease is now present in 10 counties. Many outbreaks have occurred in the last 10 days, including a number of severe cases, during the recent favorable weather. The counties are: Ben Hill, Bacon, Berrien, Candler, Coffee, Colquitt, Irwin, Tattnall, Treutlen, and Ware.
***** A summer-like weather pattern will become established this week *** On Monday.... trajectories moved slowly. Conditions were favorable for disease development in northern FL and southern GA, but unfavorable elsewhere. There were no long-range threats from the known sources. For Tuesday and Wednesday..... a high pressure area is building off the U.S. east coast. This well-known "Bermuda High" will pump plenty of heat and moisture into the southeast U.S. during the middle and latter parts of this week. This typically means partly cloudy skies, with afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms possible in various areas each day. Fronts will stay to the west and north of the region for the next 4 to 5 days. Trajectories from the known sources will be moving north and northeast. On Tuesday..... Moderate Risk for northern FL, southern GA, central and eastern SC, and central and eastern NC. Low Risk elsewhere. On Wednesday...... Moderate Risk for the southern Appalachian Mountains, northern FL, southern GA, central and eastern SC, all of NC, and western sections of VA. Low Risk otherwise.
TK
Areas at Strongly Moderate or HIGH Risk during the past week: southern Appalachian Mountains, central and eastern sections of SC and NC, southern GA, northern FL
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Pinar del Rio, Cuba
Santiago, Dominican Republic
Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
Corpus Christi, Texas
Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.