FORECAST SUMMARY: Wednesday, July 9:
***** Disease Update - 9 July ***** Reports of blue mold discoveries continue to arrive at the forecast center. Early this week, blue mold was confirmed in Yancey and Watauga Counties in the NC mountains, and in Pulaski County in southeast Kentucky. The Yancey County report involves many fields. We also have received another report from Madison County, NC in a different location from the one discovered last week. We have moved to 2 starting points for trajectories from the southern Appalachian Mountains, to better represent the spread of the epidemic and the potential for transport.
***** The Forecasts.... unsettled weather is expected in the Ohio Valley, southern Appalachian mountains, and mid-Atlantic states Wednesday and Thursday *** A warm lies across the upper mid-Atlantic and upper Ohio Valley regions today. This front will lift to the north, while a cold front approaches the Ohio Valley region from the west on Thursday. The fronts will help trigger daily rounds of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. High pressure sits over the Southeast today, leaving it largely dry. Expect some scattered showers to fire in that region on Thursday. Partly cloudy skies and hot temperatures will be found in all regions. Trajectories from the known sources will be moving to the east and northeast each day.
*** On Wednesday..... there is Strongly Moderate Risk for most of KY, all but the far west. There is Moderate Risk for north-central TN and the southern Appalachian Mountains. The northern FL and southern GA areas are at Weakly Moderate Risk. Other areas are at Low Risk on Wednesday. On Thursday.... conditions deteriorate in all areas. There is HIGH Risk for the southern Appalachian Mountains, north-central TN, and all of KY except the far west. There is Moderate Risk for southern GA, northern FL, eastern sections of the Carolinas, and southside VA. Low Risk otherwise on Thursday.
TK
Areas at Strongly Moderate or HIGH Risk during the past week: northern FL, southern GA, central and eastern SC, central NC, the southern Appalachian Mountains, north-central and northwest TN, south-central and western KY
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Pinar del Rio, Cuba
Santiago, Dominican Republic
Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
Corpus Christi, Texas
Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.