***** Forecast Notes - 2 July ***** Your forecaster will be on leave Friday, July 4 through Tuesday, July 8. An overview of the weather for this period is included in the forecasts. If significant changes in the potential for disease development occur, forecasts will be updated on Saturday. Otherwise, the next set of forecasts will be produced on Wednesday, July 9.
FORECAST SUMMARY: Wednesday, July 2:
***** Disease Update - 2 July ***** Blue mold continues to spread in the southern Appalachian Mountains... including the first report of disease from the NC burley areas. Blue mold was discovered in a field near the town of Grapevine in Madison County, NC, in the central mountains. Active sporulation was occurring on June 24, occurring on plants occupying less than 5% of a 7-acre field. Sprays of Actiguard and Acrobat were applied immediately after discovery. No active sporulation was observed one week later. A check of the status reports from Kentucky and Tennessee reveals that 9 counties have now reported blue mold from the southern Appalachian Mountains. This includes 6 counties in eastern TN (Claiborne, Green, Grainger, Jefferson, Knox, and Washington).... 2 counties in extreme southwest VA (Lee and Scott)... and one in western NC (Madison). Most of these outbreaks have been discovered and reported within the last week (Madison County, NC on July 1, Knox County, TN and Scott County, VA at midday on July 2, plus others).
***** For the Forecasts.... the remnants of Tropical Storm Bill will move through the mid-Atlantic states on Wednesday and Thursday *** Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected in the mid-Atlantic and Southeast today, extending westward through the mountains. Heavy rain is likely in some areas. The Ohio Valley will have partly cloudy skies with a chance of rain in the eastern sections. Thursday will bring mostly cloudy skies and a chance of showers to the mid-Atlantic region. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected in southern GA and FL westward across the Gulf Coast region. Partly cloudy and mostly dry conditions are expected elsewhere. On Wednesday.... there is HIGH Risk for northern FL, southern GA, central and eastern SC, central NC, and the southern Appalachian Mountains. Moderate Risk is forecast for southside VA and western sections of SC and NC away from the mountains. There is Weakly Moderate Risk for tobacco crops in central TN as well as for those near the source in Robertson County. Low Risk otherwise. On Thursday... HIGH Risk continues for northern FL and southern GA. There is Strongly Moderate Risk for southern and eastern SC and southeast NC. The southern mountains will be at Moderate Risk. Low Risk Thursday for other areas.
*** Friday through Tuesday.... . high pressure centered off the Atlantic coast will exert a strong influence during this period. Expect typical summertime weather conditions in the eastern U.S...... partly cloudy skies with a daily chance of isolated to scattered afternoon showers or thunderstorms. Trajectories from the known sources will tend to move to the northeast.
TK
Areas at Strongly Moderate or HIGH Risk during the past week: northern FL, southern GA, central and eastern SC, central NC, the southern Appalachian Mountains, north-central and northwest TN, south-central and western KY
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Pinar del Rio, Cuba
Santiago, Dominican Republic
Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
Corpus Christi, Texas
Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.