FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, July 25:
***** Disease Update - 23 July ***** Blue mold has been reported in Kentucky. Bill Nesmith informs us of an outbreak of blue mold on burley tobacco in Madison County, KY near the town of Richmond. About 14 acres of tobacco had widespread disease activity. This outbreak is apparently due to the import of infected transplants from northeast TN. Transplants were held in a greenhouse with other plants, which also became infected. Both foliar lesions and systemic infection are present in this outbreak. This is a serious source. More reports from the southern Appalachian Mountains are arriving. Blue mold has been discovered in Washington County, VA and Ashe and Buncombe Counties in NC. The weather has been favorable for disease development in the mountain areas for quite some time.
***** The Weather..... Unsettled weather will affect the Southeast this weekend. A stationary front lies from coastal NC southwestward to the Gulf coast. It will dissipate while high pressure and dry weather are expected elsewhere in the eastern U.S. and southern Canada Friday and most of Saturday. An interesting feature has developed today.... tropical depression 7 has formed just off the GA coast. It is forecast to move slowly northwest and/or north over the next several days although the exact track is uncertain. Rainy conditions are expected near this weak tropical system today and Saturday, mainly for eastern GA and SC. Scattered afternoon showers or thunderstorms elsewhere in the Southeast. Late Saturday and Sunday.... a cold front will move into the Great Lakes / southern Ontario / and the Northeast. Unsettled weather for these areas on Sunday. Sunny to partly cloudy and dry for the mid-Atlantic through the Ohio Valley. Scattered showers and thunderstorms for the Southeast, more numerous near the dying tropical system.
***** In the Southeast......the threat to tobacco crops will be
concentrated near the source areas. Quick washout of airborne spores is expected
near the tropical system and dry weather is expected farther inland. HIGH Risk for southeast GA and southern SC on Friday.
Strongly Moderate Risk for the rest of southern GA
and northern FL. Moderate Risk for eastern SC. Saturday and Sunday....
Moderate Risk for southern GA and northern FL.
HIGH Risk for southern and eastern SC. Low Risk elsewhere.
***** Elsewhere...... the weather will be mostly unfavorable for
survivable transport and depostion this weekend. However, one transport
event is worth a closer look. Friday's trajectory from central KY moves
north and northeast, passing over the southern Ontario growing regions Saturday
afternoon. Sunny skies and strong solar exposure should kill the bulk
of airborne spores on Friday. Showers are possible Saturday afternoon in
southern Ontario, which will coincide with the arrival of airborne spores,
whether alive (unlikely) or dead (quite likely). This
is a Low Risk event for the Canadian growing regions, but growers
are advised to be watchful during the coming days for signs of disease. Moderate Risk on Sunday for southern New England
near the cold front. Moderate Risk also on Sunday
for eastern slopes of the southern Appalachians. Otherwise, Low Risk for the Ohio Valley, mountains, mid-Atlantic
and the Northeast Friday through Sunday.
TK
Areas at Strongly Moderate or HIGH Risk during the past week: all U.S. growing regions east of the Mississippi River
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Pinar del Rio, Cuba
Santiago, Dominican Republic
Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
Corpus Christi, Texas
Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.