FORECAST SUMMARY: Wednesday, July 23:
***** Disease Update - 23 July ***** Blue mold has been reported in Kentucky. Bill Nesmith informs us of an outbreak of blue mold on burley tobacco in Madison County, KY near the town of Richmond. About 14 acres of tobacco had widespread disease activity. This outbreak is apparently due to the import of infected transplants from northeast TN. Transplants were held in a greenhouse with other plants, which also became infected. Both foliar lesions and systemic infection are present in this outbreak. This is a serious source. More reports from the southern Appalachian Mountains are arriving. Blue mold has been discovered in Washington County, VA and Ashe and Buncombe Counties in NC. The weather has been favorable for disease development in the mountain areas for quite some time.
***** Disease Update - 16 July ***** Blue mold has been reported in Connecticut. James LaMondia has informed us of the discovery of blue mold in Hartford County, CT, near the town of Suffield. A few areas of disease are present in a field of shade tobacco. This is our first report from southern New England this year. We are adding this source to the forecasts.
***** The Weather..... unsettled conditions in the eastern U.S through midweek. A cold front in the Great Lakes and Midwest moved into the eastern U.S. on Monday and Tuesday. Widespread showers and thunderstorms accompanied the front, mainly from the Northeast through the mountains and Ohio Valley, with more scattered activity elsewhere. The front will make slow progress through the eastern seaboard states today and Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms are likely for most areas Wednesday. Expect continued showers and thunderstorms on Thursday for the Northeast and along the coastal plains of the mid-Atlantic and Southeast. Drier weather behind the front will bring improvement to the Ohio Valley, southern Appalachian Mountains, and interior sections of the mid-Atlantic and Southeast. Cooler and less humid conditions in these areas will provide a break from the wet weather that has been so common this summer.
***** Monday and Tuesday.... trajectories along the
east coast moved to the northeast or NNE. Trajectories from the
mountains and Ohio Valley moved northeast to ENE. Washout of
airborne spores near the source areas was quite likely from the
mountains westward into the Ohio Valley, and in the Southeast and
Northeast. These areas were at Strongly
Moderate to HIGH Risk of disease
development. Growing regions in the mid-Atlantic states (from NC to southern
PA) faced situations where disease development factors
were mixed, with Moderate Risk for these
locations.
***** Wednesday and Thursday..... trajectories from the
east coast sources move to the northeast, while forecast pathways
from the other known sources move to the east or southeast. Favorable
conditions will be found nearly everywhere on Wednesday. Strongly Moderate to HIGH Risk for all U.S. growing areas east of
the Mississippi River. Improving conditions on Thursday (as
indicated above) will mean Low Risk for the
Ohio Valley, southern Appalachian Mountains, and most of the
mid-Atlantic and interior Southeast. Moderate to Strongly Moderate Risk for southern New
England, coastal plains of the Carolinas, and the southern GA /
northern FL region on Thursday.
***** A note to our users in
Canada...... so far this season.... we have not
observed any trajectories from the known sources that approached the
southern Canada growing areas. We are keeping our eyes open for
any such events.
TK
Areas at Strongly Moderate or HIGH Risk during the past week: all U.S. growing regions east of the Mississippi River
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Pinar del Rio, Cuba
Santiago, Dominican Republic
Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
Corpus Christi, Texas
Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.