FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, July 11:
***** Disease Update - 11 July ***** Blue mold was reported in Smyth County in southwest VA on Thursday, July 10. No other information is available at this time.
***** Disease Update - 9 July ***** Reports of blue mold discoveries continue to arrive at the forecast center. Early this week, blue mold was confirmed in Yancey and Watauga Counties in the NC mountains, and in Pulaski County in southeast Kentucky. The Yancey County report involves many fields. We also have received another report from Madison County, NC in a different location from the one discovered last week. We have moved to 2 starting points for trajectories from the southern Appalachian Mountains, to better represent the spread of the epidemic and the potential for transport.
***** The Weather....Two frontal systems will affect the eastern U.S. this weekend. Sunny to partly cloudy skies and a chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are expected for most areas each day. The first front will move into the mid-Atlantic and Southeast regions on Friday while the Ohio Valley has a dry day. The second front will move through the Ohio Valley on Saturday as the first front dissipates along the Atlantic coast. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible anywhere but are most likely near the fronts. The Ohio Valley may have another dry day on Sunday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected once again for most of the mid-Atlantic and Southeast.
*** In the Southeast.... mixed conditions are expected each day. Trajectories will be moving northeast on Friday and Saturday. There is Moderate Risk for northern FL, southern GA, and eastern sections of the Carolinas on Friday and Saturday. Similar weather conditions and transport events are anticipated for Sunday.
*** In the southern Appalachian Mountains..... the weather will vary from day to day. Trajetories are moving east the next two days. On Friday.... there is Moderate Risk for the northwestern half of the mountains, HIGH Risk for the southeastern half of the mountains. Tobacco crops along southside Virginia and the northern half of NC will be at Moderate Risk on Friday. On Saturday.... a break between the frontal systems will mean a Low to Weakly Moderate Risk for the mountain areas with Low Threat to other areas. On Sunday.... weaker winds are expected. Moderate Risk for the mountain growing areas.
*** In the Ohio Valley..... dry conditions prevail on Friday with Low Risk to crops in this region. Moderate Risk on Saturday for north-central TN and south-central KY as the second cold front moves through the region. Conditions are likely to be unfavorable for disease development on Sunday after the cold front passes.
TK
Areas at Strongly Moderate or HIGH Risk during the past week: northern FL, southern GA, central and eastern SC, central NC, the southern Appalachian Mountains, north-central TN, all but far western KY
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Pinar del Rio, Cuba
Santiago, Dominican Republic
Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
Corpus Christi, Texas
Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.