FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, August 1:
***** Disease Update - 30 July ***** Blue mold is spreading throughout the Ohio Valley. Numerous reports of blue mold have been received in the past week to 10 days. Some infections are weeks old but have only been recently discovered, while other infections are new. Disease activity levels vary. In general, the strongest activity is occurring from the Lake Cumberland area in south-central KY northward through northern KY and southeast IN. A second trajectory starting point has been added along the IN / KY border at Madison, IN. 36 counties in KY now report blue mold.... 4 in southeast IN... 3 in southern OH... and 4 in central TN. Recent weather has been favorable for disease development in the Ohio Valley. There is still significant potential for blue mold development in this region. Our thanks to Bill Nesmith in Kentucky for his excellent reporting and updates.
***** Unsettled weather is expected in the eastern U.S. and southern Canada for the foreseeable future ***** A persistent trough of low pressure in the middle and upper layers of the atmosphere is postioned over the east-central United States. This results in moist southwesterly flows over the eastern U.S., particularly the eastern seaboard. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will occur each day in various areas. Rainfall will be focused by fronts at the surface (one in the mid-Atlantic lifting north today and tonight; another coming out of the upper Midwest affecting the eastern U.S. this weekend) and aided by bundles of energy rotating through the mid and upper-level trough. This same general weather pattern is expected to persist through next week and quite possibly longer.
***** In the Southeast..... Strongly Moderate to HIGH Risk for northern FL, southern
GA, eastern SC, and eastern NC Friday through Sunday. Deposition
of airborne spores will mostly occur near the source areas. Trajectories
are moving to the northeast each day.
***** In the southern Appalachian Mountains..... trajectories will
move to the northeast from this region also. Strongly
Moderate Risk for this region Friday and Sunday, Moderate Risk on Saturday.
Low Threat to other regions from the mountain sources
otherwise.
***** In the Ohio Valley..... Mixed conditions on Friday will give
way to favorable conditions Saturday and Sunday. Trajectories move to the
ENE or northeast each day. On Friday, Moderate Risk
for central TN, all of KY except the far west, southeast IN, southern OH,
and western WV. Saturday and Sunday, Moderate
Risk for central TN.... Strongly Moderate to
HIGH Risk for southeast IN, southern OH, western WV, and all of KY except
the far west. Note.... Some trajectories from the Ohio
Valley will move near to but south of southern Ontario after travelling 36-48
hours. With the large majority of spore washout expected to occur near the
Ohio Valley source region, southern Ontario growing
areas should remain at Low Risk this weekend.
***** In the Northeast...... favorable weather for disease development
will exist through the weekend. Trajectories do not threaten other regions. HIGH Risk for the growing areas of southern New England
Friday through Sunday.
TK
Areas at Strongly Moderate or HIGH Risk during the past week: all U.S. growing regions east of the Mississippi River
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Pinar del Rio, Cuba
Santiago, Dominican Republic
Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
Corpus Christi, Texas
Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.