Due to a variety of issues, the transition to our new location has been rather difficult. While we get back on our feet, the forecasts for the next week or two will be abbreviated as follows: Detailed forecasts will be provided for the northern FL / southern GA source area. We will provide trajectories and summary information for the other sites. Should transport events from the sites in the Carribean, Mexico, or southern Texas prove threatening, we will include detailed forecasts for those events as well. We thank you for your patience while we adjust to our new surroundings!
Sunday Update: Today's trajectory (given below) moves northward through GA, then curves northeast over the southern and central Appalchian Mountains tonight, finally moving through southern New England on Monday. Several factors should greatly limit the threat to the southern Appalachian Mountain region ... including good solar exposure near the source through mid-afternoon, likely chance of washout of spores before they reach the mountains, and temperatures only slightly favorable (i.e., mostly unfavorable) for infection over the mountains tonight. Low Risk to tobacco crops along the forecast pathway on Sunday. Unsettled weather will continue over the Southeast for the next several days. More forecasts on Monday. TK
FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, April 4:
***** The focus this weekend is on the southeast United States ***** Trajectories are moving north to northeast each day. Friday's weather will be unfavorable for disease development. However, a cold front will move into the Southeast on Saturday, and turn stationary over the region on Sunday. Unsettled weather will accompany the front. Long-range transport and deposition of spores are possible. Separate forecasts are provided for Friday and Saturday for the northern FL / southern GA source area.
On Friday.... unfavorable conditions dominate the transport event, with partly cloudy skies and no rain. Low Threat from the northern FL and southern GA source area.
On Saturday..... mixed conditions are expected as the trajectory moves northeast. There is Moderate Risk for northern FL, southern GA, southern and eastern SC, and southeast NC. Low Risk elsewhere.
On Sunday.... a lot of uncertainty remains due to the complexity of the weather situation. The trajectory will likely move to the northeast once again. Weather conditions will probably be mixed to mostly favorable for survivable transport and deposition. To be safe, tobacco crops from northern Florida northward through the central and eastern Carolinas and southside Virginia should be considered to be at Moderate Risk of disease development for Sunday's transport event. An updated forecast will be produced on Sunday to clarify this situation.
Elsewhere.... the other known sources are Low Threats from Friday through Sunday.
TK
Areas at Strongly Moderate or HIGH Risk during the past week: None
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
None
Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.