FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, May 27:
*** Disease Update - 22 May *** Two more reports of blue mold from NC. These come from Alamance and Rockingham counties, in north-central NC. Both of these outbreaks are several weeks old. The Rockingham outbreak occurred in a greenhouse. As with other recent reports from NC, few details are known.
*** Sunny, dry, unfavorable weather is expected near the NC and VA sources. Mixed conditions are expected in southern GA and northern FL *** Trajectories from NC and VA move north Monday and Tuesday. Solar exposure should kill any airborne spores during transport. Low Risk to crops near the sources and along the forecast pathways. To the south.... trajectories from northern FL and southern GA curve to the west and north through portions of GA, western FL, and AL each day. Partly cloudy skies are forecast near the sources. There is a slight chance of showers in southern GA, and a 30%-40% chance for northern FL. Weakly Moderate Risk for southern GA Monday and Tuesday. Moderate Risk for northern FL. Conditions become unfavorable farther along the trajectories, with Low Risk to any tobacco crops beyond the sources in southern GA and northern FL. One other note.... some sort of low pressure area is still trying to develop near the Bahamas, though it has been ponderously slow to do so. Whatever system that does develop will affect the southeast U.S. during the middle of the week.
TK
Serious Threats: None
HIGH RISK areas: None
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Pinar del Rio, Cuba
Santiago, Dominican Republic
Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.