FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, May 17:
*** Disease Update - 15 May *** Short-range spread of the blue mold epidemic is occurring in the northeast piedmont and northern coastal plain of NC. Infected fields were discovered earlier this week in both Wilson County and Wake County, NC. The fields in Wake County are at least 50% infected. Active sporulation is occurring at both of these new outbreaks.
*** An active cold front will bring disease-favorable weather to the Southeast Friday and Saturday *** Showers and thunderstorms will accompany a cold front that lies just west of the region today. The front will move through much of the Southeast Saturday and Saturday night, then push slowly through the FL peninsula on Sunday. On Friday.... solar exposure will kill airborne spores from the NC and VA sources. However, transport events from southern GA and northern FL will bring spores northeastward through the Carolinas. Moderate Risk for northern FL. Strongly Moderate Risk for southern GA. Moderate Risk for central and eastern SC and the eastern half of NC. Low Risk elsewhere. On Saturday.... highly favorable conditions for disease development will occur in many areas. There is HIGH RISK for northern FL, southern GA, southern SC, and the eastern piedmont and coastal plains of NC. Strongly Moderate Risk exists for south-central and southeast VA. Low Risk elsewhere. On Sunday.... the front will have passed the known source regions. Trajectories move to the south and southwest, and conditions will be unfavorable for survivable transport of airborne spores. Low Risk to tobacco crops on Sunday. Unfavorable conditions are expected to continue for the southeast U.S. through the middle of next week.
TK
Serious Threats: All, on Saturday
HIGH RISK areas: northern FL, southern GA, central and eastern SC, eastern half of NC
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Pinar del Rio, Cuba
Santiago, Dominican Republic
Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.