*** Disease Update - 19 June *** From PA..... Blue mold has been discovered in around 6 to 8 fields in eastern Lancaster County. Most fields have only a small number of plants that show symptoms. However, those plants with symptoms are actively sporulating and recent weather has been favorable. From KY..... Dr. Nesmith informs us that no blue mold has been reported in Kentucky. The majority of the tobacco has been planted and transplanting in many areas has been completed.
FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, June 21:
***** The Weather ***** In the upper atmosphere..... an area of low pressure has become cut off from the main flow. Now over the northeast Gulf, it will drift westward during the next several days. At the surface.... a coastal front is situated from Cape Hatteras southward to northern FL. High pressure is centered near Cape Cod. During the next two days.... as the High moves to a position off the NC coast, the coastal front will move inland. Winds now from the northeast and east will veer to the southeast and south. Overall..... mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely on Friday for the Southeast coast, southern GA, and FL. Sunny to partly cloudy and dry elsewhere. Saturday and Sunday...... partly cloudy most areas. The chance of afternoon showers will move north and west to include most of the Southeast on Saturday, perhaps even the southern mid-Atlantic and TN valley regions on Sunday. To the north.... a cold front will become stationary over the Great Lakes and Northeast this weekend. Scattered showers in this region. The upper mid-Atlantic area will be dry. Highs in the 80's nearly all areas, with lows in the 60's.
***** The Forecast ***** Highly unsettled weather will continue in southern GA and northern FL through Sunday. Given the amount of rain expected, complete washout of airborne spores should occur close to the source areas. HIGH RISK for southern GA and northern FL Friday through Sunday. Elsewhere Friday and Saturday..... unfavorable weather will be dominant. Low Risk to commercial tobacco crops for most areas. The Outlook for Sunday will depend greatly on how far inland any cloud cover and shower activity progresses. Forecast models are having a tough time handling the evolving situation in the Southeast beyond 24-36 hours. At this time.... mixed conditions are possible in the southern Appalachian Mountains and the piedmont areas of NC and VA. Trajectories will likely be moving slowly to the north. There is Moderate Risk on Sunday for northeast TN, extreme southwest VA, eastern KY, and near the source regions of VA and NC. Low Risk elsewhere. Forecasts will be updated on Sunday if a change is indicated.
TK
Serious Threats: northern FL / southern GA
HIGH RISK areas: northern FL / southern GA
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Pinar del Rio, Cuba
Santiago, Dominican Republic
Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.