*** Disease Update - 3 July *** Two serious field outbreaks of blue mold have been discovered in Greene County, NC and Breckinridge County, KY. These sites are in eastern NC and central KY respectively. Fresh lesions are present and strong sporulation is occurring at both locations. A trajectory for the KY outbreak is added today (Hardinsburg). A trajectory for eastern NC will likely be added for Saturday's forecasts (we are taking its presence into account when evaluating the forecasts). We are also informed that blue mold was discovered in recent weeks in Nottoway and Lunenburg Counties along southside Virginia. However, the weather there over the past several weeks has been hot and dry, and disease activity from these small outbreaks has likely been minimal.
*** Disease Update - 1 July *** Blue mold has been confirmed in southwest VA. Disease activity was discovered in a field in Washington County, VA near the town of Meadowview. Blue mold has been present for at least a week. Recent weather has been favorable, and other infections are likely present in neighboring areas. We thank Chuck Johnson, Phil Blevins, and Danny Peek for this information / report. This location is close to the other reported outbreak in Jonesborough, TN. We will continue to use the Jonesborough site as the starting point for forecast trajectories.
***** Scattered showers and thunderstorms for most of the eastern U.S. Wednesday and Thursday. Drying out in the northern sections on Friday, with more scattered showers in the southern sections. ***** A hot, humid air mass dominates the eastern U.S. There is a stationary front across the Great Lakes and southern Canada. The front will move south as a cold front on Thursday and Friday. Expect scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms for most areas during the next 3 days. The best chances for rain will be in GA, FL, the southern Appalachian Mountains, and along the approaching front. Behind the front lies cooler, drier air which will spread over the nothern areas on Friday. The southern areas, from NC and TN southward, will continue to have a chance of thunderstorms. Very hot with highs in the 90's most locations, cooling to the 80's behind the front.
In the Northeast..... conditions will be unfavorable today, mixed on Thursday, and unfavorable on Friday. Low Risk for southeast PA and southern New England Wednesday and Friday. Moderate Risk for these areas on Thursday.
In the lower mid-Atlantic region..... expect mixed conditions for disease development Wednesday through Friday. The threat of disease development should remain confined to the source areas in VA and NC. Winds are weak and airborne spores are not expected to survive a second day of expsoure during transport. There is Moderate Risk for southside VA and east-central and eastern NC on Wednesday. On Thursday and Friday, the risk to tobacco crops will vary depending on the chance of rain in your area. There is Weakly Moderate Risk if the chance of showers is 20% or less (slight chance). There is Moderate Risk if the chance of showers is 30-40%. Higher chances of rain are not expected at this time.
In the Ohio Valley..... there are unfavorable conditions for survivable transport today. Low Risk to crops in this region on Wednesday. Mixed conditions are expected on Thursday as trajectories move slowly southwest. There is Moderate Risk Thursday for the southwest half of KY and the northwest half of TN. Conditions will be less favorable on Friday since there is a lesser chance of showers. Weakly Moderate Risk for southwest KY and northwest TN on Friday.
Active weather is expected in the southern Appalchian Mountains. Trajectories will move slowly south or southwest each day. There is Strongly Moderate Risk for extreme southwest VA and the mountain counties of TN, NC, and northern GA on Wednesday. Mixed to mostly favorable conditions are expected Thursday and Friday, with Moderate to Strongly Moderate Risk for the same areas each day.
Active weather is also expected in the Southeast for the next 3 days, with partly to mostly cloudy skies and a good chance of showers. There is Strongly Moderate Risk for northern FL, southern GA, and southern SC Wednesday through Friday.
Low Risk otherwise from Wednesday through Friday.
TK
Serious Threats: Southern GA / northern FL, southern Appalachian Mountains
HIGH RISK areas: None
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Pinar del Rio, Cuba
Santiago, Dominican Republic
Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.