***** Special Update - 25 July - Threat to Canadian growing areas ***** Thursday's (today's) trajectory from southeast PA moves northwest and north..... passing just to the east of Lake Erie during the evening hours. Sky conditions are mixed to unfavorable during late morning and early afternoon. Skies will become cloudy again later this afternoon. Little to no washout is expected until mid-evening, when airborne spores will be moving over western NY and Lake Ontario. Most washout should occur to the east of the southern Ontario production areas. However, there is enough threat of effective deposition to place the growing areas of southern Ontario at Moderate Risk for Thursday's transport event. Locations to the east of a line from Brantford to Simcoe are the most likely to have deposition of live spores. View Thursday's trajectory from southeast PA HERE.
***** The Weather....... A stationary front stretches from southern VA to KY and TN. Showers and thunderstorms are likely near the front during the next two days, with more scattered activity to the south. The Northeast will be dry. Highs in the 80's and 90's, lows in the 60's and 70's, with some 70's and 50's New England.
***** The Forecast......In southern New England..... Low Risk to tobacco crops in CT and MA both Wednesday and Thursday. In the mid-Atlantic states.... Moderate Risk for southeast PA and MD today. Low Risk Thursday. HIGH RISK for southside VA and north-central and eastern NC Wednesday and Thursday. In the Ohio Valley.... on Wednesday, Strongly Moderate Risk for central TN, Moderate Risk for south-central and southeast KY. Low risk otherwise. On Thursday, drier conditions will be pushing in from the north. Moderate Risk near the sources in north-central TN, Low Risk otherwise. In the southern Appalachian Mountains.... the weather will be favorable for disease development. Greater cloud cover and higher chances of rain are expected in the eastern sections. Strongly Moderate to HIGH RISK on Wednesday. On Thursday, Moderate Risk western mountains, HIGH RISK eastern areas. To the south.... favorable weather is expected in southern GA and northern FL. Little threat to other regions. Strongly Moderate to HIGH RISK in the source regions each day.
TK
Serious Threats: southern GA and northern FL, central / eastern NC and VA, southern Appalachian Moutains
HIGH RISK areas: southern GA and northern FL, central / eastern NC and VA, southern Appalachian Moutains
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Pinar del Rio, Cuba
Santiago, Dominican Republic
Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.