*** Disease Update - 19 July *** Blue mold has been discovered in the central NC mountains. Paul Shoemaker informs us that blue mold has been confirmed in Haywood County, NC. One 3/4 acre field of burley tobacco is 100% infected with severe damage on the lower half of the plants. Old lesions are present, recent weather has been favorable, and strong sporulation is occurring from fresh lesions. He estimates disease has been active here for 3 to 4 weeks. Trajectories from this source site will be added to the forecasts.
*** Disease Update - 15 July *** There have been many reports of blue mold during the past week. Blue mold has been confirmed in Robeson County, NC..... Clay County in north-central TN.... Watauga, Alleghany, and Avery Counties in northwest NC.... and Dickenson and Russell Counties in extreme southwest VA. Note that most of these new reports come from the southern Appalachian Mountains, where recent weather has been favorable for disease development. For example, in the outbreak in Alleghany County, NC, 50% of the plants in a 6-acre field have active lesions, with strong sporulation occurring. Other mountain counties may also have blue mold that has not been discovered. In Kentucky.... disease activity remains very light from isolated outbreaks. The source site in Casey County will be retained in the forecasts. We add the site in north-central TN. The Jonesborough site will anchor the forecasts from the mountains. So far, reports from the mountains are clustered near the conjunction of VA, TN, and NC. If a more distant outbreak emerges from that area we will add another trajectory starting location.
***** The Weather.......A typical summertime weather pattern is expected for the next 3 days. A cold front stretching from the lower Great Lakes into the Northeast will sink southward Friday and Saturday. It will reach southern VA and southern KY on Saturday and then begin to dissipate. Showers and thunderstorms are likely near the front. More isolated to scattered activity is expected in the sultry air mass to the south. High pressure will cover the northern sections of the eastern U.S. Saturday and Sunday after the front passes, bringing dry conditions. Warm to hot this weekend with highs in the 80's and 90's, lows in the 60's and 70's.
***** The Forecast..... Favorable conditions will be found near the approaching cold front. Mixed conditions are expected farther south, with unfavorable conditions behind the front. Friday's trajectories are moving east and southeast from the known sources. Trajectories on Saturday and Sunday tend to move slowly near the source regions. The best chances of disease development will be near the source regions. In the Northeast.... Strongly Moderate Risk for southeast PA and southern New England on Friday, Low Risk Saturday and Sunday. In NC and VA...... Moderate Risk Friday and Saturday for southside VA and north-central and eastern NC. Moderate Risk for NC on Sunday, Low Risk for southside VA. In the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachian Mountains.... Strongly Moderate Risk on Friday for central and eastern KY, north-central TN, and the southern Appalachian Mountains from southern WV through northeast GA. Saturday, Moderate Risk for north-central TN and a broad area of central KY. Strongly Moderate Risk for the southern Appalchian Mountains. Sunday, Moderate Risk for central KY, north-central TN, and the southern mountains. For southern GA and northern FL..... Weakly Moderate Risk on Friday, Moderate Risk Saturday and Sunday. Low Risk for all other areas Friday through Sunday.
TK
Serious Threats: None
HIGH RISK areas: None
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Pinar del Rio, Cuba
Santiago, Dominican Republic
Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.