*** Disease Update - 15 July *** There have been many reports of blue mold during the past week. Blue mold has been confirmed in Robeson County, NC..... Clay County in north-central TN.... Watauga, Alleghany, and Avery Counties in northwest NC.... and Dickenson and Russell Counties in extreme southwest VA. Note that most of these new reports come from the southern Appalachian Mountains, where recent weather has been favorable for disease development. For example, in the outbreak in Alleghany County, NC, 50% of the plants in a 6-acre field have active lesions, with strong sporulation occurring. Other mountain counties may also have blue mold that has not been discovered. In Kentucky.... disease activity remains very light from isolated outbreaks. The source site in Casey County will be retained in the forecasts. We add the site in north-central TN. The Jonesborough site will anchor the forecasts from the mountains. So far, reports from the mountains are clustered near the conjunction of VA, TN, and NC. If a more distant outbreak emerges from that area we will add another trajectory starting location.
***** The Weather.......There are several important elements involved in the eastern U.S. weather during the next few days. In the upper levels of the atmosphere..... a dome of high pressure sits over the Southeast. This is causing very hot temperatures and hindering afternoon thunderstorms. This upper-level High also serves to guide moisture from the western Gulf of Mexico into the mid-Mississippi and Ohio River valleys. At the surface.... a very sultry air mass lies over much of the eastern U.S. A cold front now in southern Canada will move southward, entering the Great Lakes and Northeast tonight and Thursday. On Wednesday..... sunny to partly cloudy most areas. Scattered showers in the Ohio Valley and parts of the mountains. Isolated to scattered showers for parts of FL. Dry most locations. On Thursday.... the upper-level High is forecast to weaken, which will allow significant moisture to surge into northern and central sections of the eastern U.S. The result will be partly cloudy skies with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms from TN and NC northward through the Great Lakes and Northeast. Mostly dry in the Southeast. Hot the next two days with temperatures approaching record levels in many areas. Highs in the 80's and 90's with some 100's in the Southeast. Lows in the 60's and 70's.
***** The Forecast..... Fairly typical summertime weather will result in mixed conditions where showers are possible, and mostly unfavorable conditions elsewhere. Nighttime lows in the 70's will keep sporulation down in some areas. Trajectories will generally be moving to the east. The best chances for spore deposition will be near to and east of the known source areas. On Wednesday.... Moderate Risk for central and eastern KY, north-central TN, and the southern Appalachian Mountains (including southern WV, extreme southwest VA, northeast TN, and northwest NC). Low Risk elsewhere. On Thursday.... Moderate Risk for southern New England, southeast PA, south-central and southeast VA, north-central and eastern NC, central and eastern KY, north-central TN, southern WV, extreme southwest VA, northeast TN, and northwest NC. Weakly Moderate Risk for southern GA and northern FL. Low Risk otherwise.
TK
Serious Threats: None
HIGH RISK areas: None
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Pinar del Rio, Cuba
Santiago, Dominican Republic
Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.