*** Disease Update - 12 July *** There have been many reports of blue mold during the past week. Blue mold has been confirmed in Robeson County, NC..... Clay County in north-central TN.... Watauga and Avery Counties in northwest NC.... and Dickenson and Russell Counties in extreme southwest VA. Note that most of these new reports come from the southern Appalachian Mountains, where recent weather has been favorable for disease development. It's likely that other outbreaks in the mountain areas are present. In Kentucky.... disease activity remains very light from isolated outbreaks. The source site in Casey County will be retained in the forecasts. We add the site in north-central TN. The Jonesborough site will anchor the forecasts from the mountains. So far, reports from the mountains are clustered near the conjunction of VA, TN, and NC. If a more distant outbreak emerges from that area we will add another trajectory starting location.
***** Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms this weekend in the Ohio Valley, southern Appalachian Mountains, and the Southeast. Dry weather will dominate in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic states. ***** A cold front pushed through the eastern U. S. during the middle of the week. It is now over the Southeast and lower TN Valley regions. It will drift very slowly to the north through the weekend, serving as a focus for showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will control the weather across the Northeast and mid-Atlantic states.
***** The focal points this weekend are the growing regions of the Ohio Valley and southern Appalahcian Mountains. Rain is likely in these areas. Airborne spores from KY, north-central TN, and the southern mountain areas will be moving to the north and west each day. In addition, airborne spores from the sources in eastern NC will be moving westward Friday and Saturday. Survivable transport is likely, and only modest washout is expected in the eastern NC source region. Thus, inoculum from the NC sources will enhance the potential for disease development in the mountains and Ohio Valley. There is Strongly Moderate to HIGH RISK from Friday through Sunday for the following areas....... north-central TN, most of KY, southern IN, western WV, and the southern Appalachian Mountains (including northwest NC, northeast TN, and extreme southwest VA). Other nearby growing areas are threatened but forecasts indicate a lesser chance of rain. There is Moderate Risk each day for southern OH, far western KY, and south-central and southwest NC.
*** The source areas in eastern NC and across southside Virginia will be at Low Risk Friday and Saturday. There may be some clouds but little to no chance of rain. Conditions may become more favorable by Sunday in NC, with Moderate Risk for eastern NC and northeast SC.
*** In the upper mid-Atlantic and Northeast... unfavorable weather is expected through the weekend. Low Risk to tobacco crops in these regions Friday through Sunday.
*** In the Southeast..... favorable weather is expected. Showers are likely each day through Sunday. Coverage of rainfall is such that the bulk of the spore washout should occur near the source areas. Strongly Moderate to HIGH RISK for southern GA and northern FL Friday through Sunday. Moderate Risk for southern SC on Saturday.
TK
Serious Threats: Southern GA / northern FL, southern Appalachian Mountains, south-central KY, north-central TN
HIGH RISK areas: Much of the Ohio Valley growing region, southern Appalachian Mountains, southern GA and northern FL
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Pinar del Rio, Cuba
Santiago, Dominican Republic
Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.