FORECAST DISCUSSION: Wednesday, March 28:
*** Disease Update: 23 March *** Our thanks to Mark Black in Uvalde, TX..... who informs us that blue mold has been active on wild tobacco in his area for the past 3 to 4 weeks. The Uvalde location is added to the forecasts. The sources in eastern Mexico and western Mexico will be dropped from the production forecasts. As always, we will continue to monitor those areas and report any significant events.
*** We have a new feature in the forecasts *** In the Outlook section of our forecast from Alachua, FL, you will find a ground deposition map for Thursday's transport event. Our colleagues at Air Resources Laboratory have recently made this feature of the HYSPLIT model available over the Internet. We will be using the deposition map occasionally, and we hope it will increase the understanding and usability of our forecasts.
*** Unsettled weather in the Southeast U.S. for much of the next 5 days. *** One weather system moving in from the west will bring favorable conditions for disease development beginning on Wednesday afternoon, lasting well into Friday. After a brief break, more showery weather will affect the Southeast sometime on Sunday. For Wednesday and Thursday.... there is Low Risk to growers on Wednesday, primarily due to unfavorable conditions for sporulation in northern FL. The trajectory from Cuba is also non-threatening. However, on Thursday.... some sporulation will occur, and conditions will be favorable for survivable transport and effective deposition. Widespread rain is expected on Thursday. The bulk of any deposition will occur near the source region. HIGH RISK for growers in northern FL and southeast GA on Thursday. Low Risk elsewhere. The Thursday trajectory from Cuba crosses northern FL around midday Friday.... but spores from this source are not expected to contribute to the disease development scenario for northern Florida. Sky conditions will be mixed for the first several hours after release. Also, with heavy rain expected over the eastern Gulf, full washout of any airborne spores is anticipated Thursday night. This situation will be watched closely and updated if necessary.
*** In Texas..... the weather will be mostly favorable for disease development. Risk to other growing regions is Low, but some localized disease development is possible.
TK
HIGH RISK areas: Northern FL / southeastern GA
Blue Mold Active in the Plant Bed and Greenhouse (click on small image for larger image)
What should one look for?
Climate Outlooks and Epidemic Prognoses
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.