FORECAST DISCUSSION: Friday, March 23: *** 21 March: First report of blue mold from the U.S. production areas *** Tom Kucharek informs us that blue mold has been discovered in plant beds on a farm in Alachua County, in northern Florida. Transplanting is under way on this farm. Recent weather has been very favorable for blue mold, and the grower is taking aggressive steps to control the disease.
*** Disease Update: 23 March *** Our thanks to Mark Black in Uvalde, TX..... who informs us that blue mold has been active on wild tobacco in his area for the past 3 to 4 weeks. The Uvalde location is added to the forecasts. The sources in eastern Mexico and western Mexico will be dropped from the production forecasts. As always, we will continue to monitor those areas and report any significant events.
*** All sources are Low Threats Friday through Sunday *** Trajectories from all the source areas do not threaten other production regions this weekend, with Low Risk to growers. Near the sources..... cold fronts will move near the TX sources on Saturday, and near the FL source on Sunday. There is a chance of rain in TX, with localized disease development possible. In northern FL, there is a chance of showers as the front passes. However, the risk of localized disease development is Low, as the chance of rain is not great and overnight temperatures will keep any sporulation limited.
TK
HIGH RISK areas: None
Blue Mold Active in the Plant Bed and Greenhouse (click on small image for larger image)
What should one look for?
Climate Outlooks and Epidemic Prognoses
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.