FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, June 8:
*** Disease Update: 8 June *** There are two new reports of blue mold from Virginia. They are in Brunswick and Charlotte counties in south-central and southeast VA. We are reforming a source region which will be referred to as Southside Virginia. Trajectories will be run from Drakes Branch, VA (in Charlotte County) and the existing source in Dinwiddie County to bracket this area. In NC, blue mold has been discovered in Johnston County in east-central NC. There has also been a report late this afternoon from Lee County, also in east-central NC.
*** Favorable weather is focused on the Southeast U.S. this weekend *** A weakening front will move slowly into the Southeast Friday and Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms are likely in this region through Sunday. Threat to other regions is Low, but conditions will be quite favorable for disease development. HIGH RISK for northern FL and southern GA Friday through Sunday. Moderate Risk for far southern SC on Saturday. In the lower mid-Atlantic region... favorable weather on Friday will be followed by clearing skies and drier weather on Saturday and Sunday. Strongly Moderate Risk on Friday for east-central and northeast NC, south-central and southeast VA. Low Risk otherwise. These source regions are Low Threats Saturday and Sunday. In the upper mid-Atlantic and the Ohio Valley.... conditions will be unfavorable for survivable transport or deposition. Low Threat from these source regions this weekend. In Texas... the remnants of Tropical Storm Allison will continue to soak parts of that state. Conditions will be favorable for localized disease development, but the threat to other growing regions is Low through Sunday.
*** We strongly encourage growers to monitor their plants for signs of disease. Diligent scouting and prompt reporting of blue mold are essential if one wishes to derive maximum benefit from the services we provide. ***
TK
HIGH RISK areas: Northern FL / southern GA Friday through Sunday
Blue Mold Active in the Plant Bed and Greenhouse (click on small image for larger image)
What should one look for?
(Red = New, 1 to 7 days; Blue = Active, > 7 days; Green = Old)
Climate Outlooks and Epidemic Prognoses
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
Uvalde, Texas
Corpus Christi, Texas
Pinar del Rio, Cuba
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.