FORECAST SUMMARY: Saturday, June 2:
*** Disease Update - Saturday, June 2 *** New reports of blue mold have been made in Virginia, Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania during the last two days. The reports from GA, VA, and PA are the first for these states in 2001. The blue mold in Pennsylvania is almost certainly the result of infected transplants shipped from NC between May 10 and May 24. The other infections in southern GA, northern FL, central NC, and southeast VA have occurred within the last 10 days. They are due to local or short-range disease development from nearby source areas.
*** Showers are possible or likely for many areas on Saturday, with the weather on Sunday unfavorable in most regions *** One frontal system is moving through the Northeast and mid-Atlantic states on Saturday, while a second cold front is affecting the Ohio Valley. On Sunday, the second cold front will move through the states along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Conditions near most of the source regions will be unfavorable, but showers will be possible in the Northeast, the lower Tennessee Valley, and parts of the Southeast. On Saturday.... there is Strongly Moderate Risk for east-central and northeast KY, southern and southeast OH, and western WV. Many other areas face Moderate Risk. These include northern FL, southern GA, east-central and northeast NC, southeast VA, southern MD, southeast PA, and southern New England. On Sunday, most areas will be at Low Risk, but the Pennsylvania growing areas will again be at Moderate Risk of disease development. On Monday, conditions may be favorable for disease development in the Ohio Valley and the VA/NC source region. Trajectories from the various sources are given below. Detailed forecasts will be available on Monday.
*** We strongly encourage growers to monitor their plants for signs of disease. Diligent scouting and prompt reporting of blue mold are essential if one wishes to derive maximum benefit from the services we provide. ***
TK
HIGH RISK areas: None, but many areas are at Moderate or Strongly Moderate Risk.
Blue Mold Active in the Plant Bed and Greenhouse (click on small image for larger image)
What should one look for?
(Red = New, 1 to 7 days; Blue = Active, > 7 days; Green = Old)
Climate Outlooks and Epidemic Prognoses
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
Uvalde, Texas
Corpus Christi, Texas
Pinar del Rio, Cuba
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.