FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, June 29:
*** Disease Update - 27 June *** New report of blue mold in northwest Kentucky. Bill Nesmith informs us that blue mold has been discovered in Daviess County near the town of Owensboro. This is a strong site with heavy sporulation present. We add it to the forecasts immediately. We also have a report from Buncombe County, NC, in the central NC mountains. Symptoms are scattered throughout a 3.5 acre field. Most lesions are on the lower leaves of tobacco plants that are fairly small, about 6-8 inches high. The site in neighboring Madison County will continue to represent the disease in this area. With the increased disease activity in KY and the southern Appalachian Mountains, we are dropping the southern GA and northern FL area from the forecast rotation. However, we will continue to monitor that region and report any significant transport events.
*** A typical summer-time weather pattern is in place through the weekend. *** Conditions for survivable transport and effective deposition will be mixed each day. The chance of daily showers is greater in the mountains, and lesser in the lower mid-Atlantic. Trajectories move mostly to the northeast on Friday, ENE on Saturday, and generally east on Sunday. These transport scenarios will bring a Moderate Risk of disease development to southern New England growing areas Saturday and Sunday. Canadian growers should remain watchful, but those areas should remain at Low Risk this weekend. For other areas.... there is Low Risk to the lower mid-Atlantic region, though localized disease development is possible, particularly on Sunday. There is Low Risk for the MD and PA growing areas Friday, Moderate Risk Saturday and Sunday. In the Mountains.... there is Strongly Moderate Risk each day for the central and northern mountains of NC. There is Moderate Risk for northeast TN, southwest and extreme southwest VA, and southern WV. In the Ohio Valley.... there is Moderate Risk each day for southern IN, southern OH, western WV, and the northern 2/3 of the state of KY. Low Risk elsewhere.
*** We strongly encourage growers to monitor their plants for signs of disease. Diligent scouting and prompt reporting of blue mold are essential if one wishes to derive maximum benefit from the services we provide. ***
TK
HIGH RISK areas: None
Blue Mold Active in the Plant Bed and Greenhouse (click on small image for larger image)
What should one look for?
(Red = New, 1 to 7 days; Blue = Active, > 7 days; Green = Old)
Climate Outlooks and Epidemic Prognoses
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
Uvalde, Texas
D'Hanis, Texas
Corpus Christi, Texas
Pinar del Rio, Cuba
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.