FORECAST SUMMARY: Wednesday, June 27:
*** Forecasts are in an abbreviated format today. Trajectories from each source region are provided below. Fully detailed forecasts will be available on Friday.
*** Disease Update - 27 June *** New report of blue mold in northwest Kentucky. Bill Nesmith informs us that blue mold has been discovered in Daviess County near the town of Owensboro. This is a strong site with heavy sporulation present. We add it to the forecasts immediately. We also have a report from Buncombe County, NC, in the central NC mountains. Symptoms are scattered throughout a 3.5 acre field. Most lesions are on the lower leaves of tobacco plants that are fairly small, about 6-8 inches high. The site in neighboring Madison County will continue to represent the disease in this area. With the increased disease activity in KY and the southern Appalachian Mountains, we are dropping the southern GA and northern FL area from the forecast rotation. However, we will continue to monitor that region and report any significant transport events.
*** Typical summertime weather is in store for the eastern U.S. for the foreseeable future *** A hot, moist air mass sits over the region. Some areas will receive daily showers and thunderstorms. The most likey areas include parts of the Ohio Valley, which is near the upper-level Low that continues to drift westward. Showers and thunderstorms are likely in FL and parts of GA, where a tropical wave is affecting the region. Scattered showers are also a good bet in the southern Appalachian Mountains. Other areas will have, at most, a slight chance of thunderstorms to relieve the heat. Moderate Risk Wednesday and Thursday for northern and western KY, southern IN, southwest OH, the southern Appalachian Mountains, and the southern GA / northern FL region. Low Risk for other commercial growing areas.
*** We strongly encourage growers to monitor their plants for signs of disease. Diligent scouting and prompt reporting of blue mold are essential if one wishes to derive maximum benefit from the services we provide. ***
TK
HIGH RISK areas: None
Blue Mold Active in the Plant Bed and Greenhouse (click on small image for larger image)
What should one look for?
(Red = New, 1 to 7 days; Blue = Active, > 7 days; Green = Old)
Climate Outlooks and Epidemic Prognoses
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
Uvalde, Texas
D'Hanis, Texas
Corpus Christi, Texas
Pinar del Rio, Cuba
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.