FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, June 15:
*** Disease Update: 15 June *** Five more counties have reported blue mold in NC. Two more counties have reported blue mold in VA. All of these new reports lie amid what is now a very broad area of disease activity, which ranges from south-central VA..... across the northeast part of central NC.... and eastward into the central and northern coastal plains of NC. NC now has 28 counties reporting blue mold, all in the flue-cured areas.
*** The remnants of T.S. Allison, combined with a cold front approaching from the west, will bring continued unsettled weather to the eastern U.S. this weekend *** Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain are expected in the lower mid-Atlantic region. The heavier rain will move north and east on Saturday and Sunday into the upper mid-Atlantic and Northeast United States. The passage of a cold front will trigger afternoon showers in the east-coast states on Saturday. Dry weather is expected for most areas on Sunday. In the lower-mid-Atlantic.... there is HIGH RISK for central and eastern NC and south-central and southeast VA both Friday and Saturday. Low Risk elsewhere. Low Risk for this region on Sunday. To the north... Moderate Risk for southern PA on Friday. HIGH RISK for southern PA and northern MD on Saturday. Low risk to this region on Sunday after the front passes. To the south.... Moderate Risk each day for northern FL and southern GA. The threat to other regions is Low but daily showers or thunderstorms are possible. In the Ohio Valley... fortunate timing of the cold front means that transport conditions will be unfavorable for spore survival each day. Low Threat from this source. Finally, trajectories from southern TX do not threaten other growing regions this weekend.
*** We strongly encourage growers to monitor their plants for signs of disease. Diligent scouting and prompt reporting of blue mold are essential if one wishes to derive maximum benefit from the services we provide. ***
TK
HIGH RISK areas: Central and eastern NC, south-central and southeast VA
Blue Mold Active in the Plant Bed and Greenhouse (click on small image for larger image)
What should one look for?
(Red = New, 1 to 7 days; Blue = Active, > 7 days; Green = Old)
Climate Outlooks and Epidemic Prognoses
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
Uvalde, Texas
Corpus Christi, Texas
Pinar del Rio, Cuba
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.