FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, June 11:
*** We have had some difficulties posting today's forecasts. Detailed forecasts will be provided as soon as possible. tk
*** Disease Update: 11 June *** Blue mold has been reported from Alamance County in central NC and Sampson County in eastern NC. No details are available on these outbreaks at the present time. In Kentucky.... Bill Nesmith has observed several sites where blue mold was first discovered in east-central KY. He informs us that he found no blue mold in fields that were set with plants from infected greenhouses. Growers destroyed all the remaining plants in the greenhouses when blue mold was first discovered, and agressive spray programs were begun on the key farms. Though some disease may be present in the area, this site should be considered a weak source until or unless other outbreaks are discovered.
*** The remnants of Tropical Storm Allison will be a major problem this week. *** Now positioned along the central Gulf coast, Allison will likely move to the northeast during the next few days. Heavy rains are occurring in AL, GA, northern FL, and southern SC today. Disease-favorable weather will progress north and east into the Carolinas on Tuesday. By Wednesday, rains will be moving farther into the mid-Atlantic states. Growing regions that have yet to report any blue mold this year.... especially the burley areas of the southern Appalachian Mountains..... will likely be at significant risk of disease development by the middle of the week.
*** On Monday and Tuesday... There is HIGH RISK both days for northern FL and southern and east-central GA. In addition, there is Moderate Risk on Tuesday for northwest SC and western NC. Just to the north, some clouds and isolated showers are passing through parts of VA and NC today. Moderate Risk for east-central and northeast NC, and south-central and southeast VA on Monday. On Tuesday, conditions will be unfavorable for disease development in this region, with Low Risk to tobacco crops in NC and VA. In the upper mid-Atlantic and Northeast.... there are mixed conditions for survivable transport and deposition today. Moderate Risk for southeast PA and southern New England on Monday. On Tuesday, sky conditions near the southern PA source area will be unfavorable for survivable transport. Low Risk for this area on Tuesday. Both the central KY and southern TX sources are Low Threats early this week.
*** We strongly encourage growers to monitor their plants for signs of disease. Diligent scouting and prompt reporting of blue mold are essential if one wishes to derive maximum benefit from the services we provide. ***
TK
HIGH RISK areas: Northern FL, southern and east-central GA Monday and Tuesday
Blue Mold Active in the Plant Bed and Greenhouse (click on small image for larger image)
What should one look for?
(Red = New, 1 to 7 days; Blue = Active, > 7 days; Green = Old)
Climate Outlooks and Epidemic Prognoses
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
Uvalde, Texas
Corpus Christi, Texas
Pinar del Rio, Cuba
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.