FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, July 2:
*** Forecast are abbreviated today. A weather synopsis and disease development summary follows. Trajectories from the various source areas are given below.
*** Disease Update - 2 July *** We have the first reports of blue mold from TN and the burley growing areas of Virginia. Blue mold has been discovered in Washington County in extreme southwest VA and Greene and Cocke Counties in northeast TN. All of these locations are in the southern Appalachian Mountains. Some infections appear recent, while others may have existed for a few weeks. In the Ohio Valley.... blue mold has now become well-established in Kentucky. Most of the state is under a blue mold watch, and infections have been confirmed in a number of counties. The current spore load is low in most locations, but higher near the outbreaks. Disease activity is expected to increase during periods of favorable weather as plant growth improves and the plant canopy closes.
*** On Monday and Tuesday, there is unfavorable weather to the north, with mixed to favorable conditions to the south *** A cold front that entered the growing regions this weekend has now stalled over TN and the Carolinas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected in southern NC, the southern Appalachian Mountains, and parts of TN on Monday. North of the front, high pressure now in the Midwest will roll quickly eastward and off the coast on Tuesday. The front will move slowly back to the north on Tuesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected once again near the front. Expect highs in the 60's and 70's north, 80's and 90's south of the front.
*** There is Strongly Moderate Risk for the southern Appalachian Mountains Monday and Tuesday (western NC, eastern and northeast TN, southwest and extreme southwest VA). There is Moderate Risk for southern NC and northeast SC on Monday and Tuesday. The coastal plains of NC will be at Moderate Risk on Tuesday also. The mid-Atlantic region, from southern PA southward to northern NC, will be at Low Risk Monday and Tuesday. In the Ohio Valley....Low Risk on Monday and Tuesday. Another front will approach the eastern U.S. from the north on Wednesday and Thursday, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms to many areas.
*** We strongly encourage growers to monitor their plants for signs of disease. Diligent scouting and prompt reporting of blue mold are essential if one wishes to derive maximum benefit from the services we provide. ***
TK
HIGH RISK areas: None
Blue Mold Active in the Plant Bed and Greenhouse (click on small image for larger image)
What should one look for?
(Red = New, 1 to 7 days; Blue = Active, > 7 days; Green = Old)
Climate Outlooks and Epidemic Prognoses
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
Uvalde, Texas
D'Hanis, Texas
Corpus Christi, Texas
Pinar del Rio, Cuba
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.