FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, July 27:
*** Forecast are abbreviated today. A weather synopsis / disease development summary follows. Selected trajectories from the various source areas are given below.
*** Disease Update *** from 23 July....Jim LaMondia has confirmed the first report of blue mold from the Connecticut River Valley in 2001. A single lesion was found in a field of shade tobacco in Hampshire County, MA, near the town of Hadley. A spray program was in effect at the time of infection and will be continued. Bill Nesmith brings us an update from the Ohio Valley. He states that blue mold activity is building fast in much of the Ohio River Valley. Damaging levels are being reported across a wide swath of northern and eastern KY.... from Owensboro east to Grayson, and from Maysville south to Jackson. Lower levels exist south of Bowling Green and Somerset, but activity is increasing rapidly in that area as well.
Eastern U. S. Weather...... A stationary front ... that now lies from the southern mid-Atlantic states westward into the Ohio Valley... will drift around the same areas for the next two days. By Sunday, an area of low pressure will form along the front in the Ohio Valley and move east across southern VA. Unsettled, showery weather is expected all weekend in the Ohio Valley, southern Appalachian Mountains, and the southern mid-Atlantic states. High pressure to the north of the front will keep temperatures quite cool for late July in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic regions. As the High shifts eastward and the Low forms, dry weather in the upper mid-Atlantic and Northeast will give way to a chance of showers on Sunday.
*** There is Strongly Moderate To HIGH RISK from Friday through Sunday for the Ohio Valley, southern Appalachian Mountains, and the southern mid-Atlantic regions. *** The upper mid-Atlantic area and southern New England will be at Low Risk Friday and Saturday. On Sunday, the growing areas of the upper mid-Atlantic region will be at Strongly Moderate Risk, while southern New England will be at Moderate Risk. For southern Canada... while some trajectories move toward this region, conditions are unfavorable for survivable transport and deposition. This region will remain at Low Risk of disease development.
*** We strongly encourage growers to monitor their plants for signs of disease. Diligent scouting and prompt reporting of blue mold are essential if one wishes to derive maximum benefit from the services we provide. ***
TK
HIGH RISK areas: Strongly Moderate to HIGH RISK through the weekend for the Ohio Valley, southern Appalachian Mountains, and the southern mid-Atlantic states.
Blue Mold Active in the Plant Bed and Greenhouse (click on small image for larger image)
What should one look for?
(Red = New, 1 to 7 days; Blue = Active, > 7 days; Green = Old)
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
Uvalde, Texas
D'Hanis, Texas
Corpus Christi, Texas
Pinar del Rio, Cuba
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.