FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, July 20:
*** Forecast are abbreviated today. A weather synopsis / disease development summary follows. Trajectories from the various source areas are given below.
Taking a look at the weather...... High pressure is pushing a cold front southward through the east coast states. Fair, dry conditions will prevail in the mid-Atlantic region during the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms are likely near the front as it moves into the Southeast and turns stationary. West of the mountains, the front will make little southward progress, turning stationary from north to south and dissipating with time. Showers and thunderstorms are likely today in the Ohio Valley, and possible in the southern Appalachian Mountains. Drier conditions will push into the Ohio Valley from the east each day, with the chance of showers decreasing. However, the northwestern half of the region will have a chance of scattered afternoon showers each day. The high pressure will bring welcome cooling to the mid-Atlantic, with highs in the 80's and lows in the 60's. Heat will persist for most of the Ohio Valley, with highs in the upper 80's and 90's, lows in the upper 60's and 70's.
*** The potential for disease development will be focused in the Ohio Valley this weekend. *** Trajectories move slowly north each day in this region. Showers and thunderstorms are likely today, and there is a chance of afternoon thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday. In addition to the spores produced locally, inoculum from the southern Appalachian Mountains may impact the region Friday and Saturday. Trajectories from the mountains will move generally northwest, and sky conditions on Friday and Saturday will be mixed or mostly favorable for survivable transport. For the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachian Mountains... HIGH RISK on Friday for central and western sections of the Ohio Valley region. Moderate Risk for the eastern Ohio Valley and the southern Appalachian Mountains. On Saturday and Sunday.... Moderate Risk for central and western sections of the Ohio Valley. Low Risk for the eastern Ohio Valley and the southern Appalachian Mountains. In the mid-Atlantic growing region.... from PA southward through NC.... sky conditions will be unfavorable for survivable transport and little to no rain is expected through Sunday. Low Risk to commercial crops in this region Friday through Sunday.
*** We strongly encourage growers to monitor their plants for signs of disease. Diligent scouting and prompt reporting of blue mold are essential if one wishes to derive maximum benefit from the services we provide. ***
TK
HIGH RISK areas: central and western Ohio Valley
Blue Mold Active in the Plant Bed and Greenhouse (click on small image for larger image)
What should one look for?
(Red = New, 1 to 7 days; Blue = Active, > 7 days; Green = Old)
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
Uvalde, Texas
D'Hanis, Texas
Corpus Christi, Texas
Pinar del Rio, Cuba
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.