FORECAST SUMMARY: Wednesday, August 22:
*** Forecast are abbreviated today. A weather synopsis / disease development summary follows. Trajectories from the various source areas are given below.
Eastern U. S. Weather...... High pressure governs the weather over most of the growing regions today with dry weather prevailing. A frontal system approaching from the west will trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms in the southern Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley today. This system will affect nearly all the growing regions on Thursday with increased clouds and scattered showers. Highs in the 80's and 90's, lows in the 60's and 70's.
*** There is Moderate Risk to the Canadian growing regions on Wednesday. *** Airborne spores from the northern portions of the Ohio Valley will approach the southern Ontario growing areas tonight. Conditions are mixed for survivable transport and deposition. A run of the HYSPLIT model in concentration mode is available for this event. The Georgetown, Ohio site was used as the starting point. For illustrative purposes, the strength of the source has been exaggerated. Looking at this map of cumulative ground deposition through 36 hours.... it is evident that some deposition is possible not only near the trajectory centerline, but also away from that centerline over the southern Ontario growing areas.
*** Elsewhere..... on Wednesday.... there is Moderate Risk for northern sections of the Ohio Valley, and Low Risk elsewhere. On Thursday.... There is Strongly Moderate Risk for the entire Ohio Valley region and the growing areas of MD, PA, and southern New England. There is Moderate Risk for the southern Appalachian Mountains and southside Virginia. Central and eastern sections of the Carolinas will remain at Low Risk, as favorable conditions are not expected to reach these areas before Thursday night.
*** We strongly encourage growers to monitor their plants for signs of disease. Diligent scouting and prompt reporting of blue mold are essential if one wishes to derive maximum benefit from the services we provide. ***
TK
HIGH RISK areas: None
Blue Mold Active in the Plant Bed and Greenhouse (click on small image for larger image)
What should one look for?
(Red = New, 1 to 7 days; Blue = Active, > 7 days; Green = Old)
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
Uvalde, Texas
D'Hanis, Texas
Corpus Christi, Texas
Pinar del Rio, Cuba
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.