Climate Outlook

Characteristics of the ocean temperature structure and the atmospheric circulation indicate mature La Nina conditions. It is likely that La Nina conditions will continue to dominate the global atmospheric circulation for the next 3 to 6 months. Both the monthly outlook for May 2000 and the seasonal outlook for May-June-July indicate at or above normal temperatures and at or below normal precipitation for much of the United States. Seasonal outlooks for June-July-August and July-August-September continue to show similar tendencies. Dryness in the southern U.S. will probably persist. Dry conditions in the Midwest and Great Plains may worsen.

*** We caution our users to remember that while a monthly (or seasonal) outlook may indicate a greater likelihood of warm and dry weather, this does NOT mean that conditions will ALWAYS be warmer and drier. Daily, weekly, and monthly variations are part of the normal evolution of the weather; they can and will occur. A better interpretation describes a situation in which warmer, drier weather occurs more frequently or more intensely than cooler and/or wetter weather. Similarly, the climate outlooks also cover broad geographic regions. Isolated areas may have conditions that differ markedly from those experienced by the region as a whole. In short, these outlooks are general tendencies, not strict rules.

Prognosis for the 2000 Blue Mold Epidemic

The situation for late Spring and Summer 2000 continues to look like the one from 1999. Plant beds and greenhouses are the most likely locations for initial infections. Once in the field, blue mold should be slow to develop with the presence of locally favorable conditions playing a key role. In general, one can expect lower levels of disease activity, isolated cases of severe blue mold, and limited opportunities for spread of the epidemic.

This Climate Outlook and Epidemic Prognosis are based on information provided to the public by the Climate Prediction Center, one of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. If you wish to view the official Monthly Climate Outlook or Multi-Season Climate Outlook, follow this link to CPC - Climate Prediction Products. Warning: If you are unfamiliar with these products, you may find that they are not easily understood. Should you desire a more thorough explanation than what is available at CPC, contact your Forecaster at thomas_kever@ncsu.edu or (919) 513-2330.

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