Climate Outlook

Thermal structure of the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmospheric ciruculation patterns indicate a continuation of mature La Nina conditions. It now appears likely that at least weak La Nina conditions will be reflected in the global circulation patterns through the rest of 2000. If no changes occur in the Pacific Ocean thermal structure by mid-June, this likelihood will become a near certainty. The monthly Outlook for June.... as well as the 3-month seasonal Outlooks for June/July/August, July/August/September, and August/September/October..... describe at-or-above normal temperatures and at-or-below normal precipitation for much of the United States. The warmest forecast is for the central and east-central U.S. Dryness in the Midwest, southern Mississippi Valley, and parts of the Southeast will likely continue through early summer and perhaps beyond. There are no indications that the mostly dry regime in place will end during June or July. As July turns into August and September, persistent dryness in the southern and southeastern states will become less likely. This is due to above normal sea-surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico and the predictions of above-average tropical activity this year.

*** We caution our users to remember that while a monthly (or seasonal) outlook may indicate a greater likelihood of warm and dry weather, this does NOT mean that conditions will ALWAYS be warmer and drier. Daily, weekly, and monthly variations are part of the normal evolution of the weather; they can and will occur. A better interpretation describes a situation in which warmer, drier weather occurs more frequently or more intensely than cooler and/or wetter weather. Similarly, the climate outlooks also cover broad geographic regions. Isolated areas may have conditions that differ markedly from those experienced by the region as a whole. In short, these outlooks are general tendencies, not strict rules.

Prognosis for the 2000 Blue Mold Epidemic

The situation for Summer 2000 appears to be a continuation of that found during the Spring. Plant beds and greenhouses are the most likely locations for initial infections. Once in the field, blue mold should be slow to develop with the presence of locally favorable conditions playing a key role. In general, one can expect lower levels of disease activity, isolated cases of severe blue mold, and limited opportunities for spread of the epidemic.

This Climate Outlook and Epidemic Prognosis are based on information provided to the public by the Climate Prediction Center, one of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. If you wish to view the official Monthly Climate Outlook or Multi-Season Climate Outlook, follow this link to CPC - Climate Prediction Products. Warning: If you are unfamiliar with these products, you may find that they are not easily understood. Should you desire a more thorough explanation than what is available at CPC, contact your Forecaster at thomas_kever@ncsu.edu or (919) 513-2330.

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