Climate Outlook

There have been no significant changes since the previous outlooks were produced. Atmospheric circulation features and the oceanic temperature structures indicate continuing but somewhat weaker mature La Nina conditions. It is now very likely that at least weak La Nina conditions will be reflected in the global atmospheric circulation for most of 2000. There are no indications that the large-scale circulation patterns will change during the next month or two. As these patterns are responsible for the increased warmth and dryness currently being experienced in the Midwest, southern Mississippi Valley, and the Southeast (as well as other areas), the warm and dry weather is those areas is likely to continue. This is reflected in both the 30-day climate outlook for July and the 3-month seasonal outlook for July/August/September. In other areas of the central and eastern U.S., the climate indicators show modest leanings toward warmer and drier conditions or else no leaning at all. The lone exception is found in the eastern Great Lakes, where wetter conditions are slightly favored for the month of July.

*** We caution our users to remember that while a monthly (or seasonal) outlook may indicate a greater likelihood of warm and dry weather (for example), this does NOT mean that conditions will ALWAYS be warmer and drier. Daily, weekly, and monthly variations are part of the normal evolution of the weather; they can and will occur. A better interpretation describes a situation in which warmer, drier weather occurs more frequently or more intensely than cooler and/or wetter weather. Similarly, the climate outlooks also cover broad geographic regions. Isolated areas may have conditions that differ markedly from those experienced by the region as a whole. In short, these outlooks are general tendencies, not strict rules.

Prognosis for the 2000 Blue Mold Epidemic

Again, no significant changes. The situation for Summer 2000 will be a continuation of that found during the Spring. Plant beds and greenhouses are the most likely locations for initial infections. Once in the field, blue mold should be slow to develop with the presence of locally favorable conditions playing a key role. In general, one can expect lower levels of disease activity, isolated cases of severe blue mold, and limited opportunities for spread of the epidemic.

This Climate Outlook and Epidemic Prognosis are based on information provided to the public by the Climate Prediction Center, one of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. If you wish to view the official Monthly Climate Outlook or Multi-Season Climate Outlook, follow this link to CPC - Climate Prediction Products. Warning: If you are unfamiliar with these products, you may find that they are not easily understood. Should you desire a more thorough explanation than what is available at CPC, contact your Forecaster at thomas_kever@ncsu.edu or (919) 513-2330.

Back to the 2000 Climate Outlooks / Epidemic Prognoses