Climate Outlook

Moderate to strong La Nina conditions are expected to last through the spring and possibly well into the summer. Both the monthly outlook for April 2000 and the seasonal outlook for April-May-June indicate above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation for much of the central and eastern United States. Succeeding seasonal outlooks for May-June-July, June-July-August, and July-August-September show the same tendencies, particularly for a large portion of the country's midsection. The drought currently existing in portions of the Midwest, Southeast, and southern Plains is likely to continue and may worsen.

*** We caution our users to remember that while a monthly (or seasonal) outlook may indicate a greater likelihood of warm and dry weather, this does NOT mean that conditions will always be warmer and drier. Daily, weekly, and monthly variations are part of the normal evolution of the weather; they can and will occur. A better interpretation describes a situation in which warmer, drier weather occurs more frequently or more intensely than cooler and/or wetter weather. Similarly, the climate outlooks cover broad geographic regions. Isolated areas may have conditions that differ markedly from those experienced by the region as a whole. In short, these outlooks are general tendencies, not strict rules.

Prognosis for the 2000 Blue Mold Epidemic

The situation for Spring 2000 (and likely Summer) appears very much like the one that occurred in 1999. In early spring, field conditions in the Southeast will tend to be mostly unfavorable for disease development. Plant beds and greenhouses are the most likely locations for initial infections. Once in the field, blue mold should be slow to develop with the presence of locally favorable conditions playing a key role. This will likely be a consistent theme as the epidemic spreads northward during the season. In general, one can expect lower levels of disease activity, isolated cases of severe blue mold, and limited opportunities for spread of the epidemic.

This Climate Outlook and Epidemic Prognosis are based on information provided to the public by the Climate Prediction Center, one of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. If you wish to view the official Monthly Climate Outlook or Multi-Season Climate Outlook, follow this link to CPC - Climate Prediction Products. Warning: If you are unfamiliar with these products, you may find that they are not easily understood. Should you desire a more thorough explanation than what is available at CPC, contact your Forecaster at thomas_kever@ncsu.edu or (919) 513-2330.

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