FORECAST DISCUSSION: Wednesday, May 3: *** 3 May disease update: There are two new reports of blue mold in Georgia *** One is from a field in Ware County, near Millwood, GA. The other is from old plants beds and nearby research plots at the Coastal Plain Experiment Station near Tifton. The plant beds at this second site have been destroyed. Heavy sporulation has been observed at both locations. Trajectories from Alma, GA will serve to represent the Millwood source; a new source will be added for the Tifton location.
*** The cold front that moved down the eastern seaboard earlier this week is now stalled out along the Savannah River Valley. *** Its western end extends into TN. Before the front completely dissipates, it will serve as a focus for afternoon showers or thunderstorms. The chance of showers will continue for the TN and OH Valleys on Thursday while the chance of rain decreases in the Southeast.
*** The main problems will come from the sources in GA and northern FL *** Trajectories from this region are moving into the TN and OH Valleys on Wednesday and Thursday. The weather at the sources is mostly unfavorable, but conditions along the forecast pathways become increasingly favorable with time. Individually, these sources are only Mild Threats. Collectively, however, they present a greater danger. Moderate Risk for broad areas of central TN and central KY. Growers in southeast IN and southern OH are also at Moderate Risk. Elsewhere, all other growers are at Low Risk Wednesday and Thursday.
TK
Seriously Threatening Sources: None
HIGH RISK areas: None
Blue Mold Active in the Plant Bed and Greenhouse (click on small image for larger image)
What should one look for?
*** New for 2000 *** Climate Outlooks and Epidemic Prognoses
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Pinar del Rio, Cuba
Papantla, Mexico
Tepic, Mexico
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.
Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 3 May 2000.