FORECAST DISCUSSION: Friday, May 19: *** Disease Update *** Tom Melton in North Carolina provides the following information...... Blue mold is present in Moore, Lenoir, Johnston, Durham/Wake, and probably Beaufort Counties. The number of infected greenhouses in Lenoir County now totals 25. Beaufort County is a new report with few details available. All of the Johnston and Wake/Durham plants have been destroyed or replanted. All of the field cases of NC blue mold have been a result of putting infected plants in the field. Little sporulation has been observed with the field infections.
*** Saturday Update *** For the NC sources..... Sunday's trajectories will move slowly east to ENE. Conditions will be favorable for disease development and the risk to growers has increased. Strongly Moderate Risk for growers in central and eastern NC. In the Southeast... sky conditions will be favorable for survivable transport as the trajectories move ENE. Risk to growers has increased for this event also. Strongly Moderate Risk for southeast GA and the coastal plains of SC. Favorable weather will continue in the Southeast and southern mid-Atlantic regions early next week.
*** This weekend.... a frontal system in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys is moving toward the Southeast *** There is sunny, dry, and unfavorable weather on Friday. Friday night and Saturday will be partly cloudy with a chance of showers in the southern Appalachian Mountains, VA, and parts of the Carolinas and Georgia. Sunday's weather carries some uncertainty concerning the strength and position of the front..... but forecasters anticipate variably cloudy skies with a chance of late day showers and thunderstorms for much of the Southeast. There is Low Risk for growers Friday and Saturday. Conditions are unfavorable for survivable transport both days and there is little chance of rain along the forecast pathways. On Sunday.....the main threat appears to be localized or short-range transport and deposition. There is Moderate Risk for growers in central and eastern NC, southeast GA, and southern SC, with Low Risk elsewhere. Sunday's transport events and weather conditions will be examined in more detail on Saturday. New forecasts will be posted if necessary.
TK
Seriously Threatening Sources: None
HIGH RISK areas: None
Blue Mold Active in the Plant Bed and Greenhouse (click on small image for larger image)
What should one look for?
*** New for 2000 *** Climate Outlooks and Epidemic Prognoses
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Pinar del Rio, Cuba
Papantla, Mexico
Tepic, Mexico
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.
Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 19 May 2000.