FORECAST DISCUSSION: Wednesday, May 17: *** Disease Update *** In Lenoir County in eastern NC, significant disease activity was discovered last Thursday in one of the six greenhouse infections mentioned earlier this week. In addition, blue mold was found in four other greenhouses about 12-15 miles from the known infected greenhouses. Varying degrees of disease activity were present. This region continues to be a source of moderate strength.
*** There is potential for disease development in the mid-Atlantic and the Northeast *** Unsettled weather is moving into these regions Wednesday night and Thursday. Airborne spores from NC are moving north and northeast after release on Wednesday. Conditions for survivable transport and deposition are variable and somewhat favorable. On Wednesday.... there is Moderate Risk for growers in the eastern half of NC, eastern PA, and all of New England. Low Risk elsewhere. On Thursday.... all growers should be at Low Risk of disease development. One other note for growers in MD and western NC: although your risk is Low, trajectories move over or very near your areas. Growers are encouraged to remain alert for signs of disease during the next week.
TK
Seriously Threatening Sources: None
HIGH RISK areas: None
Blue Mold Active in the Plant Bed and Greenhouse (click on small image for larger image)
What should one look for?
*** New for 2000 *** Climate Outlooks and Epidemic Prognoses
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Pinar del Rio, Cuba
Papantla, Mexico
Tepic, Mexico
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.
Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 12 May 2000.