FORECAST DISCUSSION: Monday, June 26: *** Epidemic Update - Monday, June 26. Blue mold has been reported in southern New England *** Jim LaMondia informs us that a few lesions were found on tobacco plants in a greenhouse at the University of MA in Amherst, on June 23. Infected plants were destroyed and others were treated with Acrobat. Growers in the Connecticut River Valley region should be alert to the possibility of infections. *** Friday, June 23: Blue mold has been reported in Kentucky. Bill Nesmith reports that low levels of disease activity are present in 6 counties in east-central and eastern KY. All activity appears to be new. A new source site at Richmond, KY is being added to the forecasts. *** Dan Van Hooren in southern Ontario informs us that a serious outbreak of blue mold has been confirmed near Delhi, in western Haldimand-Norfolk county. Another very minor case was discoverd southwest of Delhi. All of these recently reported outbreaks are located near one another in the western section of Haldimand-Norfolk county. The trajectory launch point at La Salette will continue to represent this area.
*** Unsettled weather is moving into the eastern U.S. *** A cold front is pushing eastward from the Midwest. Numerous showers and thunderstorms in the Ohio Valley today with scattered thunderstorms elsewhere. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue on Tuesday. The mountains and the Ohio Valley will be at greatest risk of disease development. On Monday... there is Strongly Moderate Risk for east-central KY. Moderate Risk for the southern Appalachian Mountains, far eastern KY, western WV, southern OH, and western VA. On Tuesday.... Strongly Moderate Risk for all of eastern KY and the southern Appalachian Mountains. Moderate Risk for southwest VA and northern NC. Elsewhere.... growers in southern New England are at Moderate Risk both days, as are the growers in southern GA and northern FL. There is Weakly Moderate Risk on Monday and Tuesday for central and eastern NC, eastern VA, and southern MD. Growers in southern Ontario are at Low Risk, though some localized disease development is possible. The cold front will move through the Northeast U.S. Tuesday night. However, the southern end of the front will stall in the lower mid-Atlantic and TN Valley regions. Unsettled weather will persist in the southern half of the eastern U.S. through the week.
*** The 2000 bluemold county disease map is now available. Follow the link below or from our Homepage ***
*** International disease reports are now online *** Links to these reports can be found on our homepage and on the page with all the forecasts for 2000.
TK
Seriously Threatening Sources: None
HIGH RISK areas: None
Blue Mold in the Field (click on small image for larger image)
What should one look for?
*** New for 2000 *** Climate Outlooks and Epidemic Prognoses
County Map of New and Existing Outbreaks, 2000
(Red = New, 1 to 7 days; Blue = Active, > 7 days; Green = Old)
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Pinar del Rio, Cuba
Papantla, Mexico
Tepic, Mexico
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.
