FORECAST DISCUSSION: Friday, June 23: *** Epidemic Update - Thursday, June 22: Blue Mold has been reported from the NC burley region. *** Paul Shoemaker reports that Madison County Extension Agent Terri Scruggs found blue mold in 2 separate fields in Madison County, NC, in the central NC mountains. One outbreak is near Marshall, NC and the second is in Grapevine, NC. Only a small number of primary and secondary lesions are present. A trajectory from Madison County will be included in the forecasts for the southern Appalachian Mountains, and the presence of disease included in our analysis. *** Friday, June 23: Blue mold has been reported in Kentucky. Bill Nesmith reports that low levels of disease activity are present in 6 counties in east-central and eastern KY. All activity appears to be new. A new source site at Richmond, KY is being added to the forecasts. *** Dan Van Hooren in southern Ontario informs us that a serious outbreak of blue mold has been confirmed near Delhi, in western Haldimand-Norfolk county. Another very minor case was discoverd southwest of Delhi. All of these recently reported outbreaks are located near one another in the western section of Haldimand-Norfolk county. The trajectory launch point at La Salette will continue to represent this area.
*** Some areas will get a break from the recently active weather this weekend. *** Southern Ontraio, the eastern OH Valley, the southern Appalachian Mountains, and the lower mid-Atlantic states will be at Low Risk Friday and Saturday. Conditions are unfavorable for survivable transport and little to no rain is expected. By Sunday.... the Bermuda High will be re-establishing its influence and a front will be moving in from the Midwest. Conditions will be somewhat favorable in the eastern Great Lakes and near the Mountains. Moderate Risk on Sunday for southern Ontario, the eastern Ohio Valley, and the southern Appalachian Mountains. Low Risk should continue for the lower Mid-Atlantic states. In the Southeast.... unsettled weather will persist in southern GA and northern FL through the weekend. Growers there are at Strongly Moderate Risk today, Moderate Risk Saturday and Sunday.
*** The 2000 bluemold county disease map is now available. Follow the link below or from our Homepage ***
*** International disease reports are now online *** Links to these reports can be found on our homepage and on the page with all the forecasts for 2000.
TK
Seriously Threatening Sources: None
HIGH RISK areas: None
Blue Mold in the Field (click on small image for larger image)
What should one look for?
*** New for 2000 *** Climate Outlooks and Epidemic Prognoses
County Map of New and Existing Outbreaks, 2000
(Red = New, 1 to 7 days; Blue = Active, > 7 days; Green = Old)
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Pinar del Rio, Cuba
Papantla, Mexico
Tepic, Mexico
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.
