FORECAST DISCUSSION: Monday, June 19: *** A frontal system in the mid-Atlantic and southern Appalachian Mountains will provide favorable conditions for disease development Monday and Tuesday *** The Bermuda High off the Atlantic coast continues to pump moisture into the region. Cloudy with a good chance of showers or thunderstorms near the front; partly cloudy with scattered afternoon thunderstorms possible elsewhere. Unsettled weather will continue for most areas on Tuesday. East of the mountains, the front will wash out; west of the mountains, the front will move back to the north as a warm front ahead of the next system. On Monday.... growers in northwest NC are at HIGH RISK of disease development. There is Strongly Moderate Risk for other sections of the mountains. Growers in central and eastern NC and south-central VA will also be at Strongly Moderate Risk. On Tuesday... trajectories from the mountains will move north and northeast. There is HIGH RISK for the southern Appalachian Mountains and far eastern KY; Moderate Risk for western WV and southern and eastern OH. There is Moderate Risk as well for central and southeast NC, with Low Risk elsewhere. In the Southeast... there is Moderate Risk of localized disease development both days. No long-range transport is expected. The Texas region poses no threat early this week.
*** The 2000 bluemold county disease map is now available. Follow the link below or from our Homepage ***
*** International disease reports are now online *** Links to these reports can be found on our homepage and on the page with all the forecasts for 2000.
TK
Seriously Threatening Sources: Eastern TN
HIGH RISK areas: Eastern TN, western NC, southwest and extreme southwest VA, far eastern KY, southern WV
Blue Mold Active in the Plant Bed and Greenhouse (click on small image for larger image)
What should one look for?
*** New for 2000 *** Climate Outlooks and Epidemic Prognoses
County Map of New and Existing Outbreaks, 2000
(Red = New, 1 to 7 days; Blue = Active, > 7 days; Green = Old)
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Pinar del Rio, Cuba
Papantla, Mexico
Tepic, Mexico
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.
Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 19 June 2000.
