SUNDAY UPDATE: Current forecast is basically on track. Most noteworthy item is the trajectory out of the southern Appalachian Mountains. It moves eastward.... through the mountains this evening.... central VA overnight..... crossing the Chesapeake Bay and offshore Monday morning. The majority of any deposition will occur this afternoon and evening with thunderstorms already firing by 1pm. Shower/thunderstorm activity is expected to continue off-and-on through the night. Mountains remain at HIGH RISK today; Moderate Risk for growers in the southern half of VA. Growers in the upper mid-Atlantic region are not threatened today. Trajectories from the sources in NC move east-northeast, reaching the ocean this evening or overnight. Plenty of spore death during transport today. Risk to growers in central and eastern NC and southeast VA should be Weakly Moderate or lower. For Monday.... The front currently in the upper mid-Atlantic will sink southward into VA on Monday. Conditions in the southern Appalachian Mountains and the lower mid-Atlantic will be favorable for survivable transport and disease development. Preliminary trajectories indicate slow movement of any airborne spores. I anticipate Strongly Moderate to HIGH risk levels for growers in these regions. TK
FORECAST DISCUSSION: Friday, June 16: *** Conditions are ideal for disease development in the southern Appalachian Mountains this weekend. Transport and deposition to the previously unaffected regions of MD and southern PA are likely. *** A typical summertime weather pattern is in place. A ridge of high pressure lies off the east coast, pumping moisture northward from the Gulf. A cold front is approaching from the Midwest, but will bog down as it runs into the strong ridge. Showers and thunderstorms are likely in the mountains and upper mid-Atlantic each day. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers are possible for other sections of the mid-Atlantic and Southeast. There is HIGH RISK for growers in the southern Appalachian Mountains each day this weekend. Growers in MD and southern PA will be at HIGH RISK on Friday, and possibly again on Sunday. For the NC sources... conditions will be mixed on Friday and Saturday, unfavorable on Sunday, as trajectories move to the northeast and east. Moderate Risk on Friday for central and eastern NC, eastern VA, and southern New England. Moderate Risk on Saturday for central and eastern NC, eastern VA, and southern MD. These sources will be Low Threats on Sunday. In the Southeast... localized disease development is possible each day, but no long-range transport is expected.
*** The 2000 bluemold county disease map is now available. Follow the link below or from our Homepage ***
*** International disease reports are now online *** Links to these reports can be found on our homepage and on the page with all the forecasts for 2000.
TK
Seriously Threatening Sources: Eastern TN
HIGH RISK areas: Eastern TN, western NC, southwest and extreme southwest VA, far eastern KY, southern WV, MD, and southern PA
Blue Mold Active in the Plant Bed and Greenhouse (click on small image for larger image)
What should one look for?
*** New for 2000 *** Climate Outlooks and Epidemic Prognoses
County Map of New and Existing Outbreaks, 2000
(Red = New, 1 to 7 days; Blue = Active, > 7 days; Green = Old)
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Pinar del Rio, Cuba
Papantla, Mexico
Tepic, Mexico
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.
Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 16 June 2000.
