FORECAST DISCUSSION: Wednesday, June 14: *** 9 June: Blue mold has been reported in Tennessee *** Darrell Hensley reports that a field source of blue mold has been discovered in Grainger County in eastern TN, near the town of Rutledge. Lesions are fresh with active sporulation. Some systemic lesions are present also. This is moderate strength source. In addition, disease samples were brought in this morning from Sevier County, and it appears that blue mold may be present in that area. A new source is being added for Rutledge, TN. The southernmost of the three sources in southern GA / northern FL, Alachua, is being dropped. The remaining trajetory sites in south-central and southeast GA will represent any airborne spores coming from this region.
*** The 2000 bluemold county disease map is now available. Follow the link below or from our Homepage ***
*** International disease reports are now online *** Links to these reports can be found on our homepage and on the page with all the forecasts for 2000.
*** Hot and somewhat unsettled weather in store for the eastern U. S. Wednesday and Thursday *** A large ridge of high pressure is set up off the east coast, pumping heat and moisture into the eastern U.S. A weakening cold front is approaching from the Midwest. With this typical summertime situation in place, look for partly cloudy skies and a daily chance of afternoon showers or thunderstorms for many areas. Trajectories will be moving northeast from the known sources each day. Growers near the southern Appalachian Mountains will face the greatest threat. The areas of concern are western NC, eastern TN, far eastern KY, southwest and extreme southwest VA, southern WV, and southeast OH. Growers in these areas are at Moderate Risk on Wednesday, HIGH RISK on Thursday. In the mid-Atlantic..... there will be mixed conditions during transport and a chance of showers or thunderstorms both days. Moderate Risk for growers in the eastern sections of the mid-Atlantic states and southern New England, plus central sections of NC and VA. In the Southeast.... conditions will be less favorable than other areas but some disease development is possible. Weakly Moderate Risk for northern FL, southern GA, and central and eastern SC on both days. For Friday through Sunday..... the prevailing weather pattern will not change significantly. Expect spore transport to the northeast, mixed conditions during transport, and a chance of afternoon showers for many areas.
TK
Seriously Threatening Sources: Eastern TN
HIGH RISK areas: Eastern TN, western NC, southwest and extreme southwest VA, far eastern KY, southern WV
Blue Mold Active in the Plant Bed and Greenhouse (click on small image for larger image)
What should one look for?
*** New for 2000 *** Climate Outlooks and Epidemic Prognoses
County Map of New and Existing Outbreaks, 2000
(Red = New, 1 to 7 days; Blue = Active, > 7 days; Green = Old)
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Pinar del Rio, Cuba
Papantla, Mexico
Tepic, Mexico
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.
Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 14 June 2000.
